战争条件下乌克兰货币信贷体系的主要问题

Dmytro Hladkyh, O. Lyubich
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Purpose.To analyze the key challenges and destabilizing factors that directly and negatively affect the performance of the monetary and credit system of Ukraine of its key functions and to justify the most urgent state measures aimed at overcoming them. Methods. General scientific and special methods are used: analysis, synthesis, grouping, description, comparison, theoretical generalization and abstract-logical. Results. The key problems faced by the monetary and credit system of Ukraine during the war are analyzed: new challenges faced by the banking system, negative dynamics of inflation, suspension of lending and changes in the structure of the credit portfolio, challenges to exchange rate stability, and a decrease in the level of financial inclusion. Within the scope of solving these problems, a number of measures have been proposed to reduce the rate of price growth and ensure the exchange rate stability of the hryvnia, the gradual recovery and activation of the lending activities of banks, primarily in the field of long-term corporate lending in the national currency, and the restoration of the appropriate level of financial inclusion. Conclusions. 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引用次数: 1

摘要

介绍。在2022年至2023年期间,乌克兰的货币和信贷体系面临着前所未有的数量和全新的问题,这些问题与永久性低强度武装冲突向全面军事行动的过渡有关,并伴随着直接影响货币领域的各种负面后果。问题陈述。为在货币领域实施一系列国家管制措施确定先决条件和前景,旨在克服乌克兰在战争条件下货币和信贷体系的主要问题。目的。分析直接和负面影响乌克兰货币和信贷体系主要职能的主要挑战和不稳定因素,并证明旨在克服这些问题的最紧迫的国家措施是合理的。方法。一般的科学方法和特殊的方法:分析、综合、分组、描述、比较、理论概括和抽象逻辑。结果。分析了乌克兰货币和信贷体系在战争期间面临的关键问题:银行体系面临的新挑战,通货膨胀的负面动态,贷款暂停和信贷组合结构的变化,对汇率稳定的挑战,以及金融包容性水平的下降。在解决这些问题的范围内,已经提出了一些措施,以降低价格增长率并确保格里夫纳的汇率稳定,逐步恢复和激活银行的贷款活动,主要是在国家货币的长期企业贷款领域,以及恢复适当的金融包容性水平。结论。在战争条件下解决乌克兰货币和信贷体系问题的主要工具尤其应该是进一步遵守“昂贵货币”政策;限制货币供应量和货币供应量增长率;确保国家机构在货币政策执行过程中的共同责任;NBU和OVDP存单收益率水平同步;外币贷款、存款比重减少;促进出口;恢复强制出售出口商的部分外汇收入;现金货币供给增长;运用非货币工具实施抗通胀政策;改进所涉资金强制留存办法;提高居民存款收益率;解决“新”不良贷款问题;建立管理不良资产的专门国家机构;国有银行参与重建项目贷款;刺激按揭贷款;银行分支机构恢复营业;组织流动部门的工作;暂停关闭国有银行分支机构;进一步发展电力银行系统;为邮政局提供自动柜员机及付款终端机;实施金融知识培训课程;建立单一的金融知识交流平台;为长者提供非现金支付技巧方面的支援。
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Main problems of the monetary and credit system of Ukraine in the conditions of war
Introduction. During 2022-2023, the monetary and credit system of Ukraine faced an unprecedentedly large number and a fundamentally new quality of problems associated with the transition of a permanent low-intensity armed conflict into full-scale military operations, accompanied by various negative consequences that directly affect the monetary sphere. Problem Statement. Establishing the prerequisites and substantiating prospects for the implementation of a complex of regulatory measures of the state in the monetary sphere, aimed at overcoming the main problems of the monetary and credit system of Ukraine in the conditions of war. Purpose.To analyze the key challenges and destabilizing factors that directly and negatively affect the performance of the monetary and credit system of Ukraine of its key functions and to justify the most urgent state measures aimed at overcoming them. Methods. General scientific and special methods are used: analysis, synthesis, grouping, description, comparison, theoretical generalization and abstract-logical. Results. The key problems faced by the monetary and credit system of Ukraine during the war are analyzed: new challenges faced by the banking system, negative dynamics of inflation, suspension of lending and changes in the structure of the credit portfolio, challenges to exchange rate stability, and a decrease in the level of financial inclusion. Within the scope of solving these problems, a number of measures have been proposed to reduce the rate of price growth and ensure the exchange rate stability of the hryvnia, the gradual recovery and activation of the lending activities of banks, primarily in the field of long-term corporate lending in the national currency, and the restoration of the appropriate level of financial inclusion. Conclusions. The main tools for solving the problems of the monetary and credit system of Ukraine in the conditions of the war should be, in particular, further compliance with the policy of “expensive money”; limitation of emission and money supply growth rates; ensuring the joint responsibility of state institutions in the process of implementing monetary policy; synchronization of yield levels of NBU and OVDP certificates of deposit; decrease in the share of foreign currency loans and deposits; export promotion; restoration of the mandatory sale of part of the foreign currency earnings of exporters; growth in the supply of cash currency; use of non-monetary instruments of anti-inflation policy; improvement of the method of mandatory reservation of the funds involved; increasing the yield of household deposits; settlement of the “new” NPL problem; creation of a specialized state institution for NPL management; involvement of state banks in lending to reconstruction projects; stimulation of mortgage lending; resumption of work of bank branches; organization of work of mobile departments; temporary moratorium on closing branches of state banks; further development of the POWER BANKING system; provision of post offices with ATMs and payment terminals; implementation of a training course on financial literacy; creation of a single communication platform on financial literacy issues; providing support to the elderly in non-cash payment skills.
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