经济增长与农业增长的关系:以中国为例

Wang Xuezhen, W. Shilei, G. Feng
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引用次数: 18

摘要

对于农业与经济发展的关系,这个问题一直存在争议。本文以1952-2007年的中国为例进行了计量经济模型分析,结果表明农业与经济增长之间一直存在正相关关系,并讨论了农业如何对经济增长做出贡献。研究发现:(1)尽管农业占GDP的比重随着时间的推移明显下降,但随着价格指数的消除,农业对经济增长的贡献一直保持上升趋势,对非农经济增长做出了重要的市场、外汇、要素(金融和劳动力)、产出贡献,仍然是经济增长不可替代的动力;(2)强劲的经济增长并不一定需要更高的农业部门GDP增长率。中国应该也有实力进入工业培育农业的阶段。提高农业贡献,需要继续鼓励农村劳动力转移,提高农村居民消费水平,鼓励出口,增加农民收入,使国民经济快速有序发展。
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The Relationship between Economic Growth and Agricultural Growth: The Case of China
For the relationship between agriculture and economic development, this issue has been in controversy. This article performs econometric model analysis in the case of China for the year 1952-2007 showing that there has always been an positive relation between agricultural and economic growth and discusses how agriculture makes a contribution to economy growth. We conclude: (1) although the share of agriculture in GDP has declined significantly over time, the contribution of agricultural growth has maintained an upward trend with the elimination of the price index and it has made an important market, foreign exchange, factor (finance and labour), output contributions to nonagricultural growth and then it remains an irreplaceable driving force for economic growth; (2) economic growth strongly does not necessarily need a higher GDP growth rate in the agricultural sector. China should and have strength to enter the stage of industry nurturing agriculture. Enhancing agricultural contributions needs to continue to encourage the transfer of rural labour, raise the level of consumption of rural residents, encourage export and increase farmers’ income so that the national economy develops rapidly and orderly.
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