津巴布韦经济相对于邻国的竞争力分析

Puruweti Siyakiya
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摘要

本研究的目的是分析2006年至2015年间津巴布韦经济相对于其邻国博茨瓦纳、莫桑比克、南非和赞比亚的竞争力对经济绩效的影响。本研究采用基于随机效应模型的面板数据模型。结果表明,投资、人力资本和综合竞争力对经济增长的影响为正且具有统计学意义,而通货膨胀对经济增长的影响为负且不显著。投资、人力资本和竞争力每提高1%,对经济增长的预期效果分别为0.31%、1.14%和5.52%。结果进一步揭示了国家的个人竞争力对经济表现的贡献。然而,与津巴布韦相比,有压倒性的证据表明,南非、博茨瓦纳和赞比亚的贡献较高,而莫桑比克的贡献微不足道。具体而言,南非、博茨瓦纳和赞比亚的竞争力指数为3,对经济绩效的贡献分别比津巴布韦在相同得分下所能达到的水平高3.54%、3.44%和2.93%。鉴于上述情况,津巴布韦必须努力提高表现出一些弱点的九大竞争力支柱的表现,以便实现更高的经济增长。除了应对竞争力挑战外,样本国家还需要增加投资,改善人力资本,以刺激经济表现。
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Analyzing the Competitiveness of Zimbabwean Economy against its Neighbouring Countries
The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact on economic performance of competitiveness of Zimbabwean economy vis-a-vis its neighbouring countries, namely Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia between 2006 and 2015. In this study a panel data model based on random effects model is applied. Results confirm that investment, human capital and overall competitiveness are positive and statistically significant while inflation is negative and insignificant in influencing the economic growth. A 1% increase in investment, human capital and improvement in competitiveness has an expected effect of increasing economic growth by 0.31%, 1.14% and 5.52% respectively. Results further unravel that country’s individual competitiveness contributes to economic performance. However, relative to Zimbabwe, there is overwhelming evidence that South Africa, Botswana and Zambia have higher contributions while that of Mozambique is insignificant. Specifically, a competitiveness index of 3 for South Africa, Botswana and Zambia contributes to economic performance by 3.54%, 3.44% and 2.93% respectively higher than that Zimbabwe could achieve using the same score. In light of the above, it is imperative for Zimbabwe to strive towards improving the performance of nine pillars of competitiveness that exhibit some weaknesses so that higher economic growth can be attained. Besides addressing competitiveness challenges, countries in the sample need to boost investment as well as improving human capital in order to stimulate economic performance.
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