伊拉克经济经历了哪些变化?

Karim Naama
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引用次数: 0

摘要

各方面的研究和经济研究都表明,不确定性对经济的各个领域都有重大影响。近年来,由于结构失衡和全球卫生危机加剧,伊拉克经济经历了困难的经济状况。由于卫生状况的改善、世界各地疫苗接种率的提高以及Covid-19感染率的下降,全球经济在2021年实现了显著复苏。伊拉克的经济增长在过去一年冠状病毒大流行造成的衰退之后开始逐步恢复,部分原因是非石油经济活动增加。至于石油部门的复苏,它对改变伊拉克经济的进程产生了最显著的影响,预计全球石油市场条件的改善将导致中期经济增长的加强,并实现财政盈余,从而有助于减少累积的债务。虽然伊拉克的经济状况随着国际石油市场的复苏而逐渐改善,但这种复苏充满了结构性障碍带来的重大风险,包括影响公共服务提供的公共投资管理限制、拖欠债务,特别是与公共工资有关的债务的缓慢偿还,以及国有银行的负担。国家和伊拉克中央银行的主权债务负担。除了脆弱的政治局势,脆弱的医疗保健系统,以及各种国家机构中猖獗的财政、行政和政治腐败。为了更好地确定方向,我们需要仔细研究如何将伊拉克经济面临的挑战视为该国发展的必要条件。然而,尽管伊拉克经济前景有所改善,全球石油市场复苏,但冠状病毒的影响和气候变化的挑战构成了新的风险因素。在高油价和将于2022年逐步取消的“欧佩克+”生产配额增加的背景下,预计经济将逐步恢复。从中期来看,石油GDP将是经济增长的主要引擎。国际和地方组织和机构对伊拉克的现状进行了大量的研究。每个人都证明,伊拉克发展面临的最严重挑战是不安全。事实上,有了这些材料,我们必须回答一个主要问题:这个国家面临什么?有什么问题需要解决?
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What Changes The Iraqi Economy Has Undergone?
Research and economic studies in all their aspects show that uncertainty has significant consequences in all areas of the economy. In recent years, the Iraqi economy has gone through difficult economic conditions as a result of exacerbations of structural imbalances and the global health crisis. The global economy witnessed a significant recovery in 2021 as a result of the improvement in the health situation, the increase in vaccination rates around the world, and the decline in Covid-19 infections. Economic growth in Iraq has begun to gradually recover in the wake of the downturn caused by the Corona pandemic during the past year, partly due to the increase in non-oil economic activity. As for the recovery of the oil sector, it has had the most prominent impact in changing the course of the Iraqi economy, and it is expected that the improvement in the conditions of the global oil market will lead to enhancing economic growth in the medium term and achieving financial surpluses that contribute to reducing the accumulated debts. Although the economic conditions in Iraq have gradually improved with the recovery of international oil markets, this recovery is fraught with major risks posed by structural obstacles, including public investment management restrictions that affected the provision of public services, the slow repayment of overdue debts, especially those related to public wages, and the burden of owned banks. The state and the Central Bank of Iraq’s sovereign debt burden. In addition to the fragility of the political situation, the weakness of the health care system, and the rampant financial, administrative and political corruption in various state institutions. In order to orient ourselves better, we need to look carefully at ways of perceiving the challenges facing the Iraqi economy as a necessary condition for the country’s development. However, despite the improvement in the prospects of the Iraqi economy and the recovery of global oil markets, the repercussions of the Corona virus and the challenges of climate change constitute new risk factors. The economy is expected to recover gradually against the backdrop of high oil prices and an increase in the production quotas of the “OPEC +” alliance, which is scheduled to be phased out in 2022. Oil GDP will be the main engine of growth in the medium term. There is a lot of research on the state of Iraq from international and local organizations and institutions. Everyone has proven that the most serious challenge for development in Iraq is insecurity. In fact, with this material we have to answer the main question: what is the country facing and what problems are there to solve?
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