小网络TRANSIMS的实现及与增强四步模型的比较

M. Jeihani, A. Ardeshiri
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引用次数: 1

摘要

出行需求预测是辅助决策者进行交通规划的重要工具。虽然传统的基于行程的四步方法是执行旅行需求分析的主要方法,但行为学在过去十年中取得了进展。本文提出并应用了对四步出行需求分析模型Sub-TAZ的改进。此外,作为迈向基于活动模型的第一步,利用Sub-TAZ方法开发的详细网络实现了TRANSIMS Track-1方法。传统的四步、Sub-TAZ和TRANSIMS模型在马里兰州米德堡的一个小型案例研究中进行了评估,并使用了区域行程表。这些模型在基准年(2005年)进行了校准和验证,并将2010年的预测结果与实际的地面交通量和速度进行了比较。该研究评估了TRANSIMS与传统和改进的四步模型的预测能力,并为进一步实施TRANSIMS提供了重要的观察结果。
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TRANSIMS Implementation for a Small Network and Comparison with Enhanced Four-Step Model
Travel demand forecasting is a major tool to assist decision makers in transportation planning. While the conventional four-step trip-based approach is the dominant method to perform travel demand analysis, behavioral advances have been made in the past decade. This paper proposes and applies an enhancemnt to the four-step travel demand analysis model called Sub-TAZ. Furthermore, as an initial step toward activity-based models, a TRANSIMS Track-1 approach is implemented utilizing a detailed network developed in Sub-TAZ approach. The conventional four-step, Sub-TAZ, and TRANSIMS models were estimated in a small case study for Fort Meade, Maryland, with zonal trip tables. The models were calibrated and validated for the base year (2005), and the forecasted results for the year (2010) were compared to actual ground counts of traffic volume and speed. The study evaluated the forecasting ability of TRANSIMS versus the conventional and enhanced fourstep models and provided critical observations concerning strategies for the further implementation of TRANSIMS.
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