Pub Date : 2017-06-01DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4426
Andrew M. Welki, T. J. Zlatoper
This paper analyzes the influence of illicit drug use on highway fatal outcomes by estimating regression models using data for the 48 contiguous U.S. states for the years 2009 and 2010. The models include a representative, but not exhaustive, collection of roadway fatality determinants. The impact of illicit drug usage on the motor vehicle death rate differs across age groups. There are statistically significant life-taking effects from marijuana use by the very youngest drivers. Comparable effects from the usage of cocaine and nonmedical pain relievers occur among older drivers. Negatively associated with the highway death rate and statistically significant are real per capita income and seat belt use. Statistically significant positive relationships with the rate are found for the ratio of rural to urban driving, temperature, speed limit, the percentage of older drivers, and cell phone usage. The paper provides information to policy makers at a time when state-level drug laws are changing rapidly. Evidence reported here on how drug use affects highway fatal outcomes is relevant to that discussion.
{"title":"An Analysis of Illicit Drug Use and Motor Vehicle Fatalities Using Contiguous State-Level Data","authors":"Andrew M. Welki, T. J. Zlatoper","doi":"10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4426","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4426","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the influence of illicit drug use on highway fatal outcomes by estimating regression models using data for the 48 contiguous U.S. states for the years 2009 and 2010. The models include a representative, but not exhaustive, collection of roadway fatality determinants. The impact of illicit drug usage on the motor vehicle death rate differs across age groups. There are statistically significant life-taking effects from marijuana use by the very youngest drivers. Comparable effects from the usage of cocaine and nonmedical pain relievers occur among older drivers. Negatively associated with the highway death rate and statistically significant are real per capita income and seat belt use. Statistically significant positive relationships with the rate are found for the ratio of rural to urban driving, temperature, speed limit, the percentage of older drivers, and cell phone usage. The paper provides information to policy makers at a time when state-level drug laws are changing rapidly. Evidence reported here on how drug use affects highway fatal outcomes is relevant to that discussion.","PeriodicalId":405535,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Transportation Research Forum","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126264630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-06-01DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4435
Logan Pizzey, J. Nolan
We assess the structure of grain shipping within the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway system. While U.S. grain exports ship from the port of Duluth, Minnesota, Canadian grain exports ship from several ports located on the Lower St. Lawrence Seaway. While North American grain exports moving from west to east can be transported in several different ways, due to data limitations our focus in this analysis is on the so-called saltie shipping market. While our findings are somewhat unexpected, they give us some unique insight into the nature of this crucial yet understudied transportation market.
{"title":"Pass the Salt: Markets for Grain Shipping on the Great Lakes","authors":"Logan Pizzey, J. Nolan","doi":"10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4435","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the structure of grain shipping within the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway system. While U.S. grain exports ship from the port of Duluth, Minnesota, Canadian grain exports ship from several ports located on the Lower St. Lawrence Seaway. While North American grain exports moving from west to east can be transported in several different ways, due to data limitations our focus in this analysis is on the so-called saltie shipping market. While our findings are somewhat unexpected, they give us some unique insight into the nature of this crucial yet understudied transportation market.","PeriodicalId":405535,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Transportation Research Forum","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129995680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-06-01DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4432
P. Bansal, K. Kockelman
This study reviews existing vehicle ownership models for India and describes the results of nine experts’ interviews to gather insights about Indians’ travel patterns and vehicle choices. According to the experts, vehicle price, fuel economy, and brand (in declining importance) are the most decisive factors in Indians’ car purchase choices. This study also estimated household vehicle ownership levels across India’s 35 states using Census 2011 data. The results suggest that states with a higher proportion of computer-owning households and higher share of households living in rural areas with larger household size, ceteris paribus, are likely to have higher car ownership.
{"title":"Indian Vehicle Ownership: Insights from Literature Review, Expert Interviews, and State-Level Model","authors":"P. Bansal, K. Kockelman","doi":"10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4432","url":null,"abstract":"This study reviews existing vehicle ownership models for India and describes the results of nine experts’ interviews to gather insights about Indians’ travel patterns and vehicle choices. According to the experts, vehicle price, fuel economy, and brand (in declining importance) are the most decisive factors in Indians’ car purchase choices. This study also estimated household vehicle ownership levels across India’s 35 states using Census 2011 data. The results suggest that states with a higher proportion of computer-owning households and higher share of households living in rural areas with larger household size, ceteris paribus, are likely to have higher car ownership.","PeriodicalId":405535,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Transportation Research Forum","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131117709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-06-01DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4441
Jay R. Brown, A. Guiffrida
This paper presents a stochastic representation of the last mile problem that quantifies expected maintenance, regular labor, overtime labor, fuel, and carbon emission costs resulting from different delivery fleet options. The last mile delivery fleet planning model presented herein can be used in a decision framework to evaluate alternative delivery strategies involving fleet size and delivery frequency with information regarding cost, carbon emissions, service levels for available delivery hours, and payload capacity, as well as the transportation capacity needed to meet customer demand and lends itself well to performing what-if analyses.
{"title":"Stochastic Modeling of the Last Mile Problem for Delivery Fleet Planning","authors":"Jay R. Brown, A. Guiffrida","doi":"10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4441","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a stochastic representation of the last mile problem that quantifies expected maintenance, regular labor, overtime labor, fuel, and carbon emission costs resulting from different delivery fleet options. The last mile delivery fleet planning model presented herein can be used in a decision framework to evaluate alternative delivery strategies involving fleet size and delivery frequency with information regarding cost, carbon emissions, service levels for available delivery hours, and payload capacity, as well as the transportation capacity needed to meet customer demand and lends itself well to performing what-if analyses.","PeriodicalId":405535,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Transportation Research Forum","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115426160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-06-01DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4429
Syeda Rubaiyat Aziz, S. Dissanayake
The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides models and methodologies for safety evaluation and prediction of safety performance of various types of roadways. However, predictive methods in the HSM are of limited use if they are not calibrated for local conditions. In this study, calibration procedures given in the HSM were followed for rural segments and intersections in Kansas. Results indicated that HSM overpredicts fatal and injury crashes and underpredicts total crashes on rural multilane roadway segments in Kansas. Therefore, existing safety performance functions (SPFs) must be adjusted for Kansas conditions, in order to increase accuracy of crash prediction. This study examined a way to adjust HSM calibration procedures by development of new regression coefficients for existing HSM-given SPF. Final calibration factors obtained through modified SPFs indicated significant improvement in crash prediction for rural multilane segments in Kansas. Additionally, obtained calibration factors indicated that the HSM is capable of predicting crashes at intersections at satisfactory level.
{"title":"Calibration of the Highway Safety ManualGiven Safety Performance Functions for RuralMultilane Segments and Intersections in Kansas","authors":"Syeda Rubaiyat Aziz, S. Dissanayake","doi":"10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4429","url":null,"abstract":"The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides models and methodologies for safety evaluation and prediction of safety performance of various types of roadways. However, predictive methods in the HSM are of limited use if they are not calibrated for local conditions. In this study, calibration procedures given in the HSM were followed for rural segments and intersections in Kansas. Results indicated that HSM overpredicts fatal and injury crashes and underpredicts total crashes on rural multilane roadway segments in Kansas. Therefore, existing safety performance functions (SPFs) must be adjusted for Kansas conditions, in order to increase accuracy of crash prediction. This study examined a way to adjust HSM calibration procedures by development of new regression coefficients for existing HSM-given SPF. Final calibration factors obtained through modified SPFs indicated significant improvement in crash prediction for rural multilane segments in Kansas. Additionally, obtained calibration factors indicated that the HSM is capable of predicting crashes at intersections at satisfactory level.","PeriodicalId":405535,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Transportation Research Forum","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133327580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-06-01DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4438
J. M. Bernard
Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree models are estimated and compared to examine the effect of driver characteristics and behaviors, temporal factors, weather conditions, and road characteristics on motor vehicle crash severity levels using Missouri crash data from 2002 to 2012. The CHAID model is found to significantly better discriminate among severity outcomes, and results suggest that the presence of alcohol, speeding, and failing to yield lead to many fatalities each year and likely have interactive effects. Decision rules are used to identify changes in driving policies expected to reduce severity outcomes.
{"title":"An Application of Decision Tree Models toExamine Motor Vehicle Crash Severity Outcomes","authors":"J. M. Bernard","doi":"10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.2.4438","url":null,"abstract":"Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree models are estimated and compared to examine the effect of driver characteristics and behaviors, temporal factors, weather conditions, and road characteristics on motor vehicle crash severity levels using Missouri crash data from 2002 to 2012. The CHAID model is found to significantly better discriminate among severity outcomes, and results suggest that the presence of alcohol, speeding, and failing to yield lead to many fatalities each year and likely have interactive effects. Decision rules are used to identify changes in driving policies expected to reduce severity outcomes.","PeriodicalId":405535,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Transportation Research Forum","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114642618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-03-01DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.1.4411
Steven Leon, N. Uddin
U.S. airlines have a vested interested in the intentions and purchase behavior of their domestic airline passengers, especially their willingness to pay for assorted ancillary services. For this research, antecedents to purchase intention and actual purchase behavior of airline ancillary services were evaluated using logistic regression and generalized linear model (GLM) and data collected from Amazon Mechanical Turk. The results show differences in airline passenger preferences when purchasing ancillary services. The number of times a passenger flies per year and the trip purpose are significant, while age and gender are not.
{"title":"Airline Ancillary Services: An Investigation into Passenger Purchase Behavior","authors":"Steven Leon, N. Uddin","doi":"10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.1.4411","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.1.4411","url":null,"abstract":"U.S. airlines have a vested interested in the intentions and purchase behavior of their domestic airline passengers, especially their willingness to pay for assorted ancillary services. For this research, antecedents to purchase intention and actual purchase behavior of airline ancillary services were evaluated using logistic regression and generalized linear model (GLM) and data collected from Amazon Mechanical Turk. The results show differences in airline passenger preferences when purchasing ancillary services. The number of times a passenger flies per year and the trip purpose are significant, while age and gender are not.","PeriodicalId":405535,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Transportation Research Forum","volume":"126 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121753803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-03-01DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.1.4405
R. D. Stewart, Natalie Burger, E. Hansen, Gavin Johnson
This paper examines 170 of the non-engineering undergraduate degrees in the fields of supply chain management, logistics, and transportation, including joint majors, present within universities in the United States. The curriculum for each degree was evaluated to determine the extent to which the students were taught transportation and related courses. Each university’s website was also examined to catalog additional best practices in education, such as required internships, used to support teaching transportation outside of formal classroom instruction.
{"title":"An Analysis of the Status of Undergraduate Transportation Management Education in the United States","authors":"R. D. Stewart, Natalie Burger, E. Hansen, Gavin Johnson","doi":"10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.1.4405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.1.4405","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines 170 of the non-engineering undergraduate degrees in the fields of supply chain management, logistics, and transportation, including joint majors, present within universities in the United States. The curriculum for each degree was evaluated to determine the extent to which the students were taught transportation and related courses. Each university’s website was also examined to catalog additional best practices in education, such as required internships, used to support teaching transportation outside of formal classroom instruction.","PeriodicalId":405535,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Transportation Research Forum","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121473491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-03-01DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.1.4417
J. Mattson, James Miller, J. Goodwill, P. Sriraj, J. Hough
This study developed an evaluation method to examine the effectiveness of mobility management and coordination programs in a community. A series of surveys were conducted of both transit users and stakeholders in communities across the country. Results from these surveys suggest improvements have occurred in efficiencies, ease of access, and quality of service. Most respondents to the stakeholder survey reported benefits that have been realized. Results from an ordered probit model demonstrate the positive impacts that improved mobility has on life satisfaction.
{"title":"Impacts of Mobility Management and Human Service Transportation Coordination Efforts and End-User Quality of Life","authors":"J. Mattson, James Miller, J. Goodwill, P. Sriraj, J. Hough","doi":"10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.1.4417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.1.4417","url":null,"abstract":"This study developed an evaluation method to examine the effectiveness of mobility management and coordination programs in a community. A series of surveys were conducted of both transit users and stakeholders in communities across the country. Results from these surveys suggest improvements have occurred in efficiencies, ease of access, and quality of service. Most respondents to the stakeholder survey reported benefits that have been realized. Results from an ordered probit model demonstrate the positive impacts that improved mobility has on life satisfaction.","PeriodicalId":405535,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Transportation Research Forum","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128420665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-03-01DOI: 10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.1.4420
M. Torshizi, R. Gray
Starting in the 2013-14 crop year, a lack of export capacity resulted in substantial increases in the spread between farm and port FOB prices in western Canada. This created a very difficult situation for the farming community. We calculate that this situation reduced grain farmers’ income over the 2013-14 and 2014-15 crop years by approximately C$6.7 billion. Clearly, the grain handling and transportation system has problems and capacity to move grain is one of them. To evaluate the need for grain export capacity expansion, we forecast future grain production using a rational expectations model to estimate future export spreads and subsequent rents. We find that without capacity improvements, the expected cost of limited grain export capacity could exceed C$5.6 billion over the next decade. Capacity improvements on the order of a 25% increase will likely mitigate this issue in the future.
{"title":"Export Spread, Farmer Revenue and Grain Export Capacity in Western Canada","authors":"M. Torshizi, R. Gray","doi":"10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.1.4420","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5399/OSU/JTRF.56.1.4420","url":null,"abstract":"Starting in the 2013-14 crop year, a lack of export capacity resulted in substantial increases in the spread between farm and port FOB prices in western Canada. This created a very difficult situation for the farming community. We calculate that this situation reduced grain farmers’ income over the 2013-14 and 2014-15 crop years by approximately C$6.7 billion. Clearly, the grain handling and transportation system has problems and capacity to move grain is one of them. To evaluate the need for grain export capacity expansion, we forecast future grain production using a rational expectations model to estimate future export spreads and subsequent rents. We find that without capacity improvements, the expected cost of limited grain export capacity could exceed C$5.6 billion over the next decade. Capacity improvements on the order of a 25% increase will likely mitigate this issue in the future.","PeriodicalId":405535,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Transportation Research Forum","volume":"164 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122556940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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