美国国债——一种风险管理方法

Simin Hojat, Denise Ginzo
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摘要

2018年,美国国债达到了令人震惊的22万亿美元(Gomes & Sinclair, 2019)。它登上了报纸的头条,成为诺贝尔经济学奖得主感兴趣的话题,对潜在影响和纠正措施的必要性存在分歧。克鲁格曼(2019)主张,对于美国这样的大型经济体来说,国债是微不足道的;然而,萨默斯(2019)等经济学家在建议对国债永无止境的增长进行明确限制方面采取了更为谨慎的立场。一些耐人寻味的问题依然存在:是否应该采取措施限制或减少债务?如果是的话,什么时候是实施的理想时间呢?本研究的目的是分析美国国债不断增加的原因,并就这些著名经济学家的观点提出讨论,以解决这些问题。此外,还解释了风险管理的基本原则,以便从不同的角度评估国债(Homan, 2013)。本研究的结果表明,风险管理理论与美国国债所涉及的风险担忧之间存在相似之处。本研究的社会影响包括确定用于分析主权国家债务的风险管理工具的潜力。
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U.S. National Debt- A Risk Management Approach
The U.S. national debt reached the astounding figure of 22 trillion dollars in 2018 (Gomes & Sinclair, 2019). It splashed onto the headlines of newspapers and became a topic of interest for Nobel laureate economists, dividing opinions on the potential impacts and the necessity of corrective measures. Krugman (2019) advocates that the national debt is trivial for a large economy like the U.S.; whereas, economists, such as Summers (2019), assume a more cautious position in recommending clear restrictions on the never-ending rise in the national debt. Some intriguing questions persist: should measures to restrain or reduce the debt be taken? If so, what is the ideal time to put them into effect? The purpose of this study is to analyze the reasons for the increasing U.S. national debt and to raise a discussion on the ideas of these reputed economists to address these questions. Additionally, the fundamental principles of risk management have been explained to evaluate the national debt from a different perspective (Homan, 2013). The findings of this research show that there are similarities between the theory of risk management and the risk concerns involved in the U.S. national debt. The social impact of this research includes the potential for the risk management tools identified to be used in analyzing the sovereign national debt.
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