股市对恐怖袭击有何反应?基于事件研究的9/11袭击证据

Dhanraj Sharma, Ruchita Verma, Murad Al- Bukari
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摘要

据说,2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击对全球经济和金融市场产生了不利影响。本文实证评估了恐怖袭击对全球前20大股票市场指数的影响。通过事件研究方法得出恐怖袭击事件对所选国家股票指数有显著影响的结论,在事件发生当天,纽约证券交易所、纳斯达克、深圳证券交易所、印度国家证券交易所、法兰克福证券交易所、孟买证券交易所、巴黎泛欧交易所、约翰内斯堡证券交易所和布鲁塞尔泛欧交易所的股票指数出现了不利的异常回报。而其余选定的股票市场在事件当日显示为正的异常回报。在事件发生后的几天里,中国证券交易所在80天内出现了负异常CAR,而印度证券交易所在事件发生后的20天内出现了负异常CAR。大多数证券交易所没有受到太大的影响,即使有影响也不会持续太久,因为异常回报在一段时间后是正的。
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Does Stock Market React to Terrorist Attack? An Evidence from 9/11 Attack Using Event Study
The global economy and financial markets around the world are said to be adversely affected by the terrorist attack of 11 September 2001. The present study empirically evaluates the impacts of terrorist attacks on the top 20 stock market indices of the world. The Event study approach is used to conclude that there is a significant impact of the terrorist attack on stock indices of the selected countries, as the following stock market indices showed an adverse abnormal return on the day of the event namely, New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, National Stock Exchange of India, Frankfurt Stock Exchange, Bombay Stock Exchange, Euronext Paris Exchange, Johannesburg stock exchange and Euronext Brussels. While the rest of the selected stock markets showed a positive abnormal return on the event date. In the following days of the event, the Stock exchange in China showed a negative abnormal CAR for 80 days, while stock exchanges in India showed a negative abnormal CAR in the 20 days following the event. Most of the stock exchanges were not much affected by the event, even if there was an effect it didn’t last long, as the abnormal return was positive after a while. 
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