大流行,俄罗斯和西方

R. Sakwa
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引用次数: 1

摘要

新冠肺炎大流行是世界历史上的一个重大事件,尽管其政治性质仍存在争议。现在判断冠状病毒将对国际事务产生何种长期影响还为时过早,但其直接后果是显而易见的。本文考察了大流行的背景和一些显著影响,指出它起到了加速作用,而不是改变游戏规则的作用。然后,该文件将这些变化置于俄罗斯外交政策的更大格局中,指出大流行只是加深和部分加速了现有的趋势和趋势。国际政治仍然困在大西洋权力体系的战后模式和新挑战的出现之间,最重要的是美国和中国之间新生的两极分化。俄罗斯试图在这个新的星座中发挥作用,包括推进其文明自治。这场大流行病不仅没有给国际事务带来更大的动荡,反而证实并加剧了现有的僵局,人们期待已久的多极化仍然是一种愿望,而不是现实。国际事务的僵局依然存在。
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The pandemic, Russia and the West
The Covid-19 pandemic represented a major event in world history, although its political character remains disputed. It is too early to tell what long-term impact the coronavirus will have on international affairs, but its immediate results are clear. The article examines the context of the pandemic and some of the salient effects, noting that it has acted as an accelerant rather than a game changer. The paper then contextualises these changes into the larger pattern of Russian foreign policy, noting the way that the pandemic only deepened and in parts accelerated existing tendencies and trends. International politics remain trapped between post-war patterns in the Atlantic power system and the emergence of new challenges, above all the nascent bipolarity between the United States and China. Russia seeks to manoeuvre in this new constellation, including by advancing its civilisational autonomy. Instead of introducing greater flux into international affairs, the pandemic only confirmed and intensified the existing impasse, and the long-anticipated multipolarity remains more of an aspiration than a reality. The stasis in international affairs remains in place.
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