Turkey’s Positioning in a Possible Political-Military Crisis Triggered by the Russian Federation in the Black Sea Region

"Against the background of the growing concern of the Euro-Atlantic community about Turkey’s approach to Russia, this paper presents the probable posture of Turkey in a potential politico-military crisis caused by Russia in the Black Sea region. Thus, considering a projective scenario in which Russia is again engaged in a military conflict by invading Ukraine, it is estimated the most possible positioning of Turkey. This results from an operational analysis, based on a MACTOR model (Matrix of alliances and conflicts: tactics, objectives and recommendations) of Professor Michel Godet, focused on the influence between actors and their interests, adapted by the author of the material to this scenario. Thus, the application of MACTOR model, configured based on the premise that Turkey has certain strategic objectives in the context created by the scenario of Ukraine’s aggression by the Russian Federation, estimates that the Ankara administration will line up to NATO posture in this crisis because this way it maximises its chances to fulfil the objectives."