埃塞俄比亚国内私人投资:贡献、制约因素、趋势和决定因素

Chuol Jock Ruey
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摘要

本研究的预期目的是通过1987-2021年34年的年度数据集,调查埃塞俄比亚私人国内投资的贡献、制约因素、趋势和决定因素。目的是通过收集二手数据来实现的。因此,尽管国内私人投资受到制约,但对国民经济的增长做出了巨大贡献。由于1974年前、1974-1991年和1991年后埃塞俄比亚经济制度的趋势,埃塞俄比亚国内私人投资面临严峻的趋势。本研究的决定因素包括私人投资、外国直接投资、通货膨胀率、获得信贷的机会、人均国内生产总值、贷款利率、人力资本、汇率、公共投资、税收和政治稳定。据此,人均GDP、政治稳定、公共投资和贷款利率对私人投资具有显著的正长期效应,而人力资本和汇率对私人投资具有显著的负长期效应。公共投资和政治稳定在短期内具有显著的正向作用,而贷款利率和汇率在短期内具有显著的负向作用。最后,扩大基础设施、增加公民的创收机制、本币升值和创造肥沃的投资环境是提出的一些建议。
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The Domestic Private Investment in Ethiopia: Contribution, Constraints, Trends and Determinants
The intended purpose of this study was to investigate the contribution, constraints, trends and determinants of private domestic investment in Ethiopia by taking annual data set of 34 years spanning from 1987-2021. The objective was achieved by collecting secondary data. Accordingly, domestics private investment has contributed a lot for the growth of the national economic despite the constrains. The domestic private investment in Ethiopia has faced severe trend due to trends in economics system in the country, i.e., pre-1974, 1974-1991 and Post 1991. The determining factors in this study included private investment, foreign direct investment, inflation rate, access to credit, GDP per capita, lending interest rate, human capital, exchange rate, public investment, taxation and political stability. Accordingly, GDP per-capital, political stability, public investment and lending interest rate have significant positive long run effect on private investment, while human capital and exchange rate have negative long run effect. Public investment and political stability have positive significant effect while lending interest rate and exchange rate have negative significant effect in the short run. Finally, expansion of infrastructure, increasing income generation mechanism for citizens, appreciation of domestic currency and creating fertile investment climate are some of the recommendations forwarded.
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