CORRELATION BETWEEN EXPERT MODEL EVALUATION AND COMPETITIVE SUCCESSFULNESS OF YOUNG CATEGORIES IN ALPINE SKIING

Expert modelling has been represented as an important part of planning and conducting training and analysing the effects of training of different categories of competitors in Alpine skiing in Slovenia. On the basis of a heuristic approach, a model of success was formed. In the category of older boys (U16), the model consists of 17 dimensions of a motor subsystem and of 8 dimensions of a morphological subsystem; on the other hand, competitive success (the criterion variable) was assessed based on the calculation of points won in the Rauch Cup competitions in the 2015/16 season. Motor and morphological dimensions were measured on a sample of 31 active competitors in the category of older boys (U16). With the help of the SMMS program package, marks were calculated at all the levels of a potential model of success. Marks calculated for an individual competitor as well as for the whole group are used by coaches as a useful orientation when planning and conducting the training process. In the second part of the survey, we intended to establish a connection between the marks calculated by means of the expert system method (heuristic approach) and the criterion variable. The calculated Pearson’s correlation coefficient confirmed the statistically significant connection between the calculated marks (expert system method) and the actual success (points won in the Rauch Cup competitions). The result obtained (r=0.47) is a relevant indicator of the validity and appropriate configuration of a reduced model of potential success.