新开放经济宏观经济学:来自南亚经济数据的实证检验

B. Paudel
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摘要

本研究首先对新近出现的经济学新领域——新开放经济宏观经济学进行了详细的考察,然后对这些模型的理论预测进行了实证检验,观察印度经济冲击在南亚地区的传导效应。在调查中,研究从Obstfeld和Rogoff(1995)的开创性工作开始,然后评估该领域的后续演变。调查显示,该领域正在迅速发展,在短时间内增加了许多维度,使该领域更加丰富,能够更好地进行更好的预测。另一方面,对南亚地区矢量自回归模型的估计发现,印度冲击对南亚地区的影响结果好坏参半。由于印度产生的实际、名义和金融冲击对邻国经济的影响程度不同。
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New Open Economy Macroeconomics: Evidence from an Empirical Test on South Asian Economic Data
This study first conducts a detailed survey on recently emerged new field in economics called new open economy macroeconomics and then carries out an empirical test of theoretical predictions of these models to observe transmission effects of Indian economic shocks in South Asia region. In the survey, the study starts with the seminal work of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) and then evaluates the subsequent evolution of this field. The survey reveals that the field is rapidly evolving with many dimensions added on it within a short period of time, making this field richer and betterable to perform better predictions. The estimation of Vector Autoregression model for South Asia region, on the other hand, uncovers that the effects of Indian shocks in South Asia region, have mixed results. Since the real, nominal, and financial shocks generated in India affect the economies of neighboring countries with varied extent.
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