乌克兰冲突将如何影响国际信息安全体系?

S. Sebekin
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摘要

本文致力于考虑在乌克兰开始特别军事行动后,确保国际信息安全的制度所发生的主要变化。试图预测IIS系统在未来将面临的挑战和风险。优先事项的转变与联合国内部的谈判进程有关,在对话主要主题之间的政治对抗日益加剧的背景下,谈判进程日益政治化,并开始遇到一些困难。据推测,在新的政治现实条件下,“全面”打击国际网络犯罪的问题仍将得不到解决。国际信息安全体系本身存在一些分裂,在促进解决这一领域关键问题的替代方法方面,该体系正在经历离心趋势。最后,可以预期的是,在与俄罗斯的互动中,美国将更积极地参与所谓的前瞻性防御战略,这应该通过持续接触的概念来实施。还审议了乌克兰行动所显示的关于网络攻击直接在武装冲突框架内的作用和地位的初步结论。假设在不久的将来,网络攻击不会被视为在战场上实现真正战略效果的手段,在战场上,常规武器发挥主导作用。试图对IIS系统的开发保持一定的动态性提出一些建议。
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How will the conflict in Ukraine affect the system of international information security?
The article is devoted to the consideration of the main changes taking place in the system of ensuring international information security after the start of a special military operation in Ukraine. An attempt is made to predict the challenges and risks that the IIS system will face in the future. The priority transformations are connected with the negotiation process within the UN, which, in the context of increasing political antagonism between the key subjects of the dialogue, is becoming increasingly politicized and is beginning to experience some difficulties. It is assumed that in the conditions of the new political reality, the issue of “comprehensive” counteraction to international cybercrime will remain unresolved. There is some fragmentation of the international information security system itself, which is experiencing centrifugal tendencies in terms of promoting alternative approaches to solving key issues in this sphere. Finally, it can be expected that the United States, in interaction with Russia, will more actively engage in a proactive strategy of so-called defend forward, which should be implemented through the concept of persistent engagement. The preliminary conclusions demonstrated by the actions in Ukraine regarding the role and place of cyber attacks directly within the framework of the armed conflict are also considered. It is assumed that in the near future cyber attacks will not be considered as a means of achieving real strategic effects on the battlefield, where conventional weapons play a dominant role. An attempt is made to give some recommendations on maintaining a certain dynamic of the development of the IIS system.
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