传染病模型中的预防、社会距离和测试

Francesc Obiols-Homs
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引用次数: 2

摘要

我发展了一个经典流行病学模型的扩展,在该模型中,政策决定了在经济和社会互动中流行病传播的概率。我用这个模型来评估隔离有症状的个体、增加社会距离、以及诸如聚合酶链反应(PCR)或快速诊断测试(区分当前感染病原体)等测试的效果,以及它与能够区分免疫和脆弱健康个体的中和试验(Neutralization Assay)等血清学测试的结合,以及防止涉及感染但无症状病原体的相互作用的强制作用。我发现隔离有症状的个体在延迟和减少感染方面有很大的效果。在缺乏执法的情况下,将这一政策与聚合酶链反应检测相结合可能只会带来微不足道的改善,而在全面执法的情况下,则会进一步推迟和减少感染的选择。仅靠保持社交距离无法在不造成巨大产出损失的情况下取得类似效果。我探索了在疫情早期阶段保持社交距离的综合影响,并在随后的一段时间内进行了测试,发现最好的结果是在大约三个月的时间里轻微减少人际交往,然后对人群进行了超过40天的测试。
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Precaution, Social Distancing and Tests in a Model of Epidemic Disease
Abstract I develop an extension of a canonical epidemiology model in which the policy in place determines the probability of transmission of an epidemic disease during economic and social interaction. I use the model to evaluate the effects of isolating symptomatic individuals, of increasing social distancing and of tests such as polymerase chain reaction – PCR – or Rapid Diagnostic Test that discriminate between currently infected agents, and its combination with a serology test like Neutralization Assay that is able to discriminate between immune and vulnerable healthy individuals, together with the role of enforcement to prevent interactions involving infected but asymptomatic agents. I find that isolating symptomatic individuals has a large effect at delaying and reducing the pick of infections. The combination of this policy with a PCR test is likely to represents only a negligible improvement in the absence of enforcement, whereas with full enforcement there is an additional delaying and reduction in the pick of infections. Social distancing alone cannot achieve similar effects without incurring in enormous output losses. I explore the combined effect of social distancing at early stages of the epidemic with a following period of tests and find that the best outcome is obtained with a light reduction of human interaction for about three months together with a subsequent test of the population over 40 days.
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