俄国战略文化的地缘政治渊源及其对中国的启示

Lizhi Qin
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摘要

俄罗斯在后冷战时代面临的主要挑战是,战略自治的地理空间已被大大压缩。由于西方列强的制衡、周边国家的安全恐慌以及苏联解体后自身实力的下降,战略控制模式难以维持。俄罗斯在帝国历史传统和民族国家战略叙事之间左右为难。俄罗斯会回到帝国时代吗?考察俄罗斯战略文化的地缘政治机制,有助于研究和判断其规律的行为模式。大陆认同、侧翼位置和陆地主张传统是塑造俄罗斯战略文化的三个变量。同时,对海权的追求、对中心地带现代化的向往、对强大外部力量的明智收缩,都验证了俄罗斯战略文化将随着相对实力地位和战略环境的变化而动态调整的逻辑。俄罗斯战略文化塑造了以恐惧为主导的战略动机,对包括战略意图在内的战略行为产生间接的、非线性的影响。风险规避/冒险是应对地缘政治风险的两种决策偏好,是由对权力地位的恐惧程度和外部环境的差异造成的。通过对俄罗斯战略文化考察的历史实践,笔者认为:如果当前和未来的发展趋势呈现出消极的预期趋势,那么俄罗斯将对现有的历史经验进行必要的修正,以适应当前的战略形势。对彼得大帝以来俄罗斯帝国历史的过程跟踪研究也从个案研究中验证了本文的理论推论。对俄罗斯战略文化的研究有助于促进中俄合作的深化和拓展。虽然两国的合作始于美国全球战略攻势的地缘政治压力,但在战略和文化层面的有益对话和沟通可以超越外部地缘政治威胁所迫使的两国合作的历史常态,塑造中俄的战略稳定。
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The geopolitical origins of Russian strategic culture and its enlightenment in China
The main challenge for Russia in the post-Cold War era is that the geographical space available for strategic autonomy has been greatly compressed. Due to the checks and balances of Western powers, the security panic of neighboring countries, and the decline of its own strength after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it is difficult to maintain the Strategic control model. Russia is torn between imperial historical traditions and nation-state strategic narratives. Will Russia return to the imperial age? The investigation of the geopolitical mechanism of Russian strategic culture is helpful to study and judge its regular behavior pattern. Continental identity, flanking position, and terrestrial claim tradition are three variables which have shaped Russia’s strategic culture. At the same time, the pursuit of sea power, the yearning for modernization in the heartland, and the wise shrinking of tough external forces have verified the logic that Russia’s strategic culture will be adjust dynamically with the change of relative power status and strategic environment. Russian strategic culture shapes strategic motivation dominated by fear and exerts indirect and nonlinear influence on strategic behavior including strategic intention. Risk aversion/risk-taking, the two decision-making preferences for dealing with geopolitical risks, are caused by differences in the degree of fear of power status and the external environment. Through the historical practice of Russian strategic culture investigation, the author believes that: if the current and future development trends show a negative expected trend, then Russia will make necessary revisions to the existing historical experience to suit the current strategic situation. The process-tracking study of Russian imperial history since Peter the Great also verifies the theoretical inferences of this study from case studies. The study of Russian strategic culture will help to promote the deepening and expansion of cooperation between China and Russia. Although the cooperation between the two countries started from the geopolitical pressure of the global strategic offensive of the United States, the beneficial dialogue and communication at the strategic and cultural level can transcend the historical normalcy of the cooperation between the two countries forced by the external geopolitical threats and shape the strategic stability of China and Russia.
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