Study on Endogenous Population Growth and Effectiveness of Fertility Policy -- Theoretical Framework based on Dynamic General Equilibrium

Assessing Fertility Policy effectiveness by the theory of endogenous population growth will provide the theoretical references for universal two-child policy. We have established a dynamic general equilibrium mode includes family, business and government, 3 kinds of Fertility Policies about quantity, economy and child-rearing time are brought into the mode. The endogenous population growth mechanisms are deduced and the effectiveness of different Fertility Policy is assessed by the numerical simulation. The results have shown there are mutual constraint relationships between population growth and economic development. Economical Fertility Policies have the strongest effect to adjust fertility rate, but may be cause fertility accumulation; the effect of polices about child-rearing time occupies second place; the quantitative Fertility Policy effect is the weakest. The above conclusions have implications for optimization of current China’s Fertility Policy.