拉丁美洲和加勒比地区与全球新秩序:面对全球和区域挑战

A. Serbín
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摘要

拉丁美洲和加勒比作为一个区域面临着一个复杂的过渡过程。这一进程的条件是当前国际环境的变化,区域政治版图的重新配置,以及前十年建立区域化和政治共识的努力的枯竭,这在当时与商品的繁荣和民粹主义和左翼政府的兴起有关。除了拉共体所面临的困难之外——在那里,一个原子化的地区与外部行动者建立共识变得极其困难——还应该加上拉丁美洲联盟的明显削弱,委内瑞拉用石油资源来维持玻利瓦尔计划的合作的能力已经耗尽,而在南美国家联盟,特别是由于委内瑞拉的危机和该机构的瘫痪——正在发生危机有六个成员国(占其成员国总数的一半)对该机构的运作提出质疑,并威胁要退出该机构。尽管委内瑞拉危机可能是这一地区局势的中心,并可能在地区主义和区域一体化面临的十字路口产生两极分化的影响,但内省是不够的。南方共同市场可能与太平洋联盟趋同,由于选举变化而重新确定其成员的对外政策,或重新塑造其国内动态,这些都不能完全解释目前的转变,必须将其与对不断变化的全球环境所施加的压力的理解结合起来,其中全球化的危机、建立全球治理的困难、多边主义的削弱和国际自由秩序的衰落,与世界范围内权力的重新配置和扩散有关,这是在一系列事态发展的框架内,该地区受到不确定性和风险的困扰。从这一角度出发,本文探讨了全球变革的不同层面及其对该地区的影响,以及该地区为适应当前国际环境的变化而面临的挑战。
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Latin America and the Caribbean and a New Global Order: Facing Global and Regional Challenges
Latin America and the Caribbean as a region faces an intricate process of transition. This process is conditioned by the changes currently ongoing in the international environment, by a reconfiguration of the regional political map and by an exhaustion of the attempts to build regionalization and political consensus of the preceding decade, associated at the time to the boom of commodities and the rise of populist and leftist governments. To the difficulties faced by CELAC — where the construction of consensuses by an atomized region vis a vis external actors becomes extremely difficult, it should be added the evident weakening of the ALBA with the exhaustion of the Venezuelan capacity to nourish with oil resources the cooperation that sustains the Bolivarian scheme and a crisis underway in UNASUR where — particularly as a result of the Venezuelan crisis and the paralysis of the institution — six of its member countries (half of its total membership) have questioned the functioning of the agency and threaten to withdraw their membership. Although the Venezuelan crisis may be the epicenter of this regional situation and its impact — possibly polarizing — on the crossroads that are confronting regionalism and regional integration, introspection is not enough. The potential convergence of MERCOSUR with the Pacific Alliance, the redefinition of the external policies of its members as a result of electoral changes or the re-shaping of its domestic dynamics do not fully explain the current shift and it is necessary to combine it with the understanding of the pressures imposed by a changing global environment, where the crisis of globalization, the difficulties to build global governance, the weakening of multilateralism and the decline of the international liberal order are associated with the reconfiguration and diffusion of power worldwide, within a framework of a series of developments plagued by uncertainties and risks for the region. In this perspective, this article addresses the different dimensions of global transformations and its impact on the region and the challenges that the region faces in order to adapt to the changes in the current international environment.
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