基于核密度估计方法的可靠性函数非参数估计

Oh-Gone Chun, S. Ahn, Myung-Yung Jeong, T. Choy, K. Kang, B. Park, Jae-Joo Kim
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摘要

对加速寿命试验数据的分析采用了一个模型。这种加速寿命试验的统计模型由表示产品寿命的散点的寿命分布和寿命与压力之间的关系组成。在本研究中,使用Coffin-Manson关系来模拟金属在热循环作用下的疲劳破坏。估计物体(寿命分布)的可靠性一般有两种统计方法。一种是参数方法,另一种是非参数方法。参数法假设底层分布函数属于由有限个参数索引的固定分布族。然后根据数据估计未知参数。另一方面,非参数方法不指定一个特定的分布族。参数化方法的主要困难出现在模型规范阶段。正确规范底层模型对于参数化方法的成功应用至关重要。不正确的规格会产生严重的模型偏差,这不能通过准确的参数估计在任何程度上得到补偿。本文从加速寿命试验数据出发,提出了一种非参数方法来估计正常使用下的寿命分布。
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Nonparametric estimation of reliability function using the kernel density estimation method
Analysis of data from an accelerated life test employs a model. Such a statistical model for an accelerated life test consists of a life distribution that represents the scatter in product life and a relationship between life and stress. In this study, the Coffin-Manson relationship is used to model fatigue failure of metals subject to thermal cycling. Generally there are two statistical methods for estimating reliability of objects (life distribution). One is a parametric approach and the other is a nonparametric one. The parametric method assumes that the underlying distribution function belongs to a fixed distribution family indexed by a finite number of parameters. The unknown parameters are then estimated from the data. On the other hand, the nonparametric method does not specify a particular family of distributions. The major difficulty of the parametric approach arises at the stage of model specification. Correct specification of the underlying model is crucial for successful application of the parametric approach. Incorrect specification yields severe model bias and this cannot be compensated in any degree by accurate parameter estimation. In this paper, we provide a nonparametric method to estimate the life distribution under normal usage from accelerated life test data.<>
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