Banyuwangi机场航空客运量影响因素的计量经济学预测与分析

Suwander Husada, .. Endroyono, Y. Suprapto
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引用次数: 0

摘要

未来机场的客流量需要预测。在几种航空客运量预测方法中,计量经济学方法是其中的一种。这种方法具有长期预测和获得影响航空客运量的经济因素的知识的优点。在本研究中,几个经济因素,如酒店入住率,人口,印尼盾汇率,旅游游客,通货膨胀和Banyuwangi消费价格指数(CPI)进行了分析。在构建模型之前需要的预分析数据,包括数据选择、数据描述、数据模式识别和数据完整性。从各变量的组合检验结果中得到最佳的计量模型。运用最优计量模型对未来20年的半玉望基机场航空客运量进行了预测。从结果来看,三个因素显著影响航空客运量,即酒店入住率影响0.301%,人口影响0.132%,印尼盾汇率影响-0.481%。使用平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)评估预测的准确性,其值为15,208%。
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Prediction and Analysis of the Factors That Influence Volume of Air Passenger at Banyuwangi Airport using Econometric
: The volume of passengers at the airport in the future needs to be predicted. From several air passenger prediction methods, one of them is the econometric method. This method has the excellence of long-term predictions and gaining knowledge of economic factors that affect the volume of air passengers. In this study, several economic factors, such as hotel occupancy, population, rupiah exchange rate, tourism visitor, inflation, and the Banyuwangi Consumer Price Index (CPI), were analyzed. Pre-analysis data needed before building the model, including data selection, data description, data pattern recognition, and data completeness. The best econometric model is obtained from the results of the combination test of each variable. The best econometric model is used to predict the volume of air passengers in Banyuwangi airport for the next 20 years. From the results, three factors significantly effect the volume of air passengers, that is, hotel occupancy affect 0.301%, population affect 0.132%, and the rupiah exchange rate affect -0.481%. To evaluate the accuracy of predictions using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a value of 15,208 %.
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