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摘要

本文通过计量经济学分析,考察了北马其顿政府债务对其经济增长的影响。数据包括国内和国外一般政府债务与北马其顿经济增长的关系。为此,评估采用自回归分布滞后模型,利用1999 - 2020年期间的年度数据。此外,评估还包括控制主要变数的其他变数,它们是:还本付息、外汇储备情况、固定资本形成总额占国内总产值的百分比和外国直接投资流入占国内总产值的百分比。将数据转换为自然对数,发现国内和外部政府债务与国内生产总值实际增长率之间存在坚实的负相关关系。
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The Impact of Government Debt on Economic Growth in North Macedonia
This paper investigates the impact of the North Macedonian government debt on its economic growth through an econometric analysis. The data consists of relation between domestic and foreign general government debt to economic growth in North Macedonia. For this purpose, the appraisal utilizes the model of autoregressive distributed lag exploiting yearly data for the time-frame 1999 - 2020. Moreover, the assessment comprised additional variables to control the main variables and they are the following: Debt service payments, Foreign reserve position, Gross fixed capital formation as a percentage of GDP and Foreign Direct Investment inflow as a percentage of GDP. The data are converted to natural logarithm and it is found a solid negative relationship of domestic and external government debt to real growth rate of gross domestic product.
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