旱涝灾害对中国农作物产量和生产的定量影响

Yiting Liu, Wenjiao Shi
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摘要

近几十年来,由于局部和全球的干旱和洪水,粮食生产受到干扰,作物产量下降。以前的研究使用作物模型来模拟作物产量对某些极端天气指数的响应。然而,这些研究大多没有定量地检测干旱和洪水的影响。本文收集了1982-2012年中国播种面积(SA)、覆盖面积(CA)和受灾面积(AA)的统计数据,以及1979-2015年中国玉米、水稻、小麦和大豆的省际产量和产量统计数据。利用这些数据,我们计算了干旱和洪水的发生频率。在中国不同主产区(MGPA),采用叠加历元分析(SEA)方法定量检测了1982—1997年、1998—2012年不同时期旱涝灾害对作物产量和生产的影响。结果表明:主要作物受洪涝影响减产4.4% ~ 6.8%,主要作物受干旱影响减产3.7% ~ 9.2%;玉米和大豆对干旱的敏感性在全国范围内较低,特别是在东北地区,东北地区和全国分别显著降低10.4% ~ 17.2%和6.4% ~ 9.2%。在中国,干旱和洪涝对小麦产量均有影响,分别显著降低4.3%和6.1%。此外,不同类型的水稻对干旱和洪水的反应也不同。中国和长江中下游地区早稻对洪涝灾害较为敏感,而中稻对干旱和洪涝灾害均较为敏感。同时,不同时期作物的响应有所不同,但两个时期之间的减少差异不大。对中国旱涝灾害对作物产量和生产的影响进行时空定量识别,对于采取合理的农田灌溉和基础建设等措施,减少旱涝灾害对作物的负面影响,保障中国的粮食安全至关重要。
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The quantitative impacts of drought and flood on crop yields and production in China
The disturbance of food production and the reduction of crop yields were observed due to droughts and flood locally and globally in recent decades. Previous studies used crop models to simulate the response of crop yields to some indices of extreme weather. However, most of these studies did not detect the impacts of droughts and floods quantitatively. In this paper, the statistical data of sown area (SA), covered area (CA) and affected area (AA) during 1982-2012, and crop yields and production of maize, rice, wheat and soybean in China during 1979-2015 in provincial level were collected. Using these data, we counted the occurrence frequency of droughts and floods. In different major grain-producing areas (MGPA) of China, the superposed epoch analysis (SEA) method was applied to detect the quantitative impacts of droughts and floods on the crop yields and production during different periods (1982-1997, 1998-2012). The results presented that main crops had a 4.4%-6.8% yield and production reduction due to flood, and wider impacts on production and yield of main crops due to droughts were observed, with decreases ranging from 3.7% to 9.2%. Maize and soybean were more sensitive to drought in the whole China, especially in the NEC, with the significant reduction of 10.4%-17.2% in the NEC and 6.4%9.2% in the whole China. In China, both droughts and floods affected wheat yield with significant decreases of 4.3% and 6.1%, respectively. Moreover, different types of rice had various responses to droughts and floods. Early rice was sensitive to floods in China and in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR), but middle-season rice seemed to be sensitive to both droughts and flood in China. Meanwhile, crops responses during different periods varied, but did not have great difference of reduction between two periods. The spatio-temporal identification of quantitative impacts of drought and flood on crop yields and production in China is essential for applying suitable adaptions, such as better irrigation and basic construction in cropland to decrease the negative effects of droughts and floods on crops to guarantee the food security in China.
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