A Machine Learning-driven IoT Architecture for Predicting the Growth and Trend of Covid-19 Epidemic Outbreaks to Identify High-risk Locations

Covid-19 has had a destructive influence on global economics, social life, education, and technologies. The rise of the Covid-19 pandemic has increased the use of digital tools and technologies for epidemic control. This research uses machine learning (ML) models to identify populated areas and predict the disease's risk and impact. The proposed system requires only details about mask utilization, temperature, and distance between individuals, which helps protect the individual's privacy. The gathered data is transferred to an ML engine in the cloud to determine the risk probability of public areas concerning Covid-19. Extracted data are input for multiple ML techniques such as Random Forest (RF), Decision tree (DT), Naive Bayes classifier(NBC), Neural network(NN), and Support vector machine (SVM). Expectation maximization (EM), K-means, Density, Filtered, and Farthest first (FF) clustering algorithms are applied for clustering. Compared to other algorithms, the K-means produces better superior accuracy. The regression technique is utilized for prediction. The outcomes of several methods are compared, and the most suitable ML algorithms utilized in this study are used to identify high-risk locations. In comparison to other identical architectures, the suggested architecture retains excellent accuracies. It is observed that the time taken to build the model using locally weighted learning(LWL) was 0.02 seconds, and the NN took more time to build, which is 0.90 seconds. To test the model, an LWL algorithm took more time which is 1.73 seconds, and the NN took less time to test, which is 0.02 seconds. The NBC has a 99.38 percent accuracy, the RF classifier has a 97.33 percent accuracy, and the DT has a 94.51 percent accuracy for the same data set. These algorithms have significant possibilities for predicting the likelihood of crowd risks of Covid-19 in a public space. This approach generates automatic notifications to concerned government authorities in any aberrant detection. This study is likely to aid researchers in modeling healthcare systems and spur additional research into innovative technology.