盗贼之间的荣誉:理解武装组织之间的修辞和物质合作

C. Blair, E. Chenoweth, Michael C. Horowitz, Evan Perkoski, P. Potter
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引用次数: 1

摘要

武装组织之间的合作有助于提高能力,但也带来了安全风险。当组织面临来自国家的严重镇压时,情况尤其如此。因此,为了让合作在最有价值的时候出现并持续下去,激进组织必须有办法承诺合作,即使在叛变的动机很高的时候。我们认为,共同的意识形态通过提供社区监督、权威结构、信任和跨国网络来发挥这一作用。我们使用新的、广泛的、时间序列数据来测试这一理论,这些数据是关于1950年至2016年武装组织之间关系的,我们在这里介绍。研究结果表明,当群体拥有共同的意识形态,尤其是宗教信仰时,他们更有可能发起物质联盟。此外,面对国家的镇压,共同的意识形态与持续的合作联系在一起。这些发现背景和扩展了重要的现有研究,表明暴力,非国家行为者之间的联系强烈地影响了他们的战术和战略行为。
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Honor Among Thieves: Understanding Rhetorical and Material Cooperation Among Militant Groups
Cooperation among militant organizations contributes to capability but also presents security risks. This is particularly the case when organizations face substantial repression from the state. As a consequence, for cooperation to emerge and persist when it is most valuable, militant groups must have means of committing to cooperation even when the incentives to defect are high. We posit that shared ideology plays this role by providing community monitoring, authority structures, trust, and transnational networks. We test this theory using new, expansive, time-series data on relationships between militant organizations from 1950-2016, which we introduce here. The results show that when groups share an ideology, and especially religion, they are more likely to initiate material alliances. Moreover, in the face of repression from the state, shared ideology is associated with sustained cooperation. These findings contextualize and expand upon important existing research demonstrating that connections between violent, nonstate actors strongly shape their tactical and strategic behavior.
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