比较臭氧消耗物质和二氧化碳对北极海冰损失的影响

M. Bushuk, L. Polvani, M. England
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摘要

人们普遍认为,北极海冰的迅速减少是大气中温室气体(GHGs)浓度增加的结果。虽然二氧化碳(CO2)是主要的温室气体贡献者,但最近的工作强调了臭氧消耗物质(ODS)在北极海冰损失中的重要作用。然而,目前还没有对二氧化碳和臭氧消耗物质对北极海冰损失的机制和相对影响进行仔细的分析。本研究对消耗臭氧层物质浓度迅速增加的1955-2005年期间进行了这种比较,方法是分析一套气候模式综合的全部强迫组合,其目的是在内部气候变率的背景下分离对单个强迫因子的强迫响应。研究表明,在这一时期,臭氧消耗物质在北极海冰范围和体积趋势中发挥了重要作用,分别占范围和体积趋势的64%和32%。这些影响分别占二氧化碳强迫影响的50%和38%。我们发现臭氧消耗物质通过与二氧化碳相似的物理过程起作用,通过增加夏季融化导致海冰损失,而不是海冰动力学变化。这些发现表明,ODS排放的未来轨迹将在未来北极海冰演变中发挥重要作用。
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Comparing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and carbon dioxide on Arctic sea ice loss
The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice is widely believed to be a consequence of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs). While carbon dioxide (CO2) is the dominant GHG contributor, recent work has highlighted a substantial role for ozone-depleting substances (ODS) in Arctic sea ice loss. However, a careful analysis of the mechanisms and relative impacts of CO2 versus ODS on Arctic sea ice loss has yet to be performed. This study performs this comparison over the period 1955–2005 when concentrations of ODS increased rapidly, by analyzing a suite of all-but-one-forcing ensembles of climate model integrations, designed to isolate the forced response to individual forcing agents in the context of internal climate variability. We show that ODS have played a significant role in year-round Arctic sea ice extent and volume trends over that period, accounting for 64% and 32% of extent and volume trends, respectively. These impacts represent 50% and 38% of the impact from CO2 forcing, respectively. We find that ODS act via similar physical processes to CO2, causing sea ice loss via increased summer melt, and not sea ice dynamics changes. These findings imply that the future trajectory of ODS emissions will play an important role in future Arctic sea ice evolution.
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