基于进化博弈论的工程建设近靶事件披露策略仿真模型

Zhongfu Qin, Shilan Wu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在建筑工程领域,近险事件管理初期的隐蔽报告问题严重阻碍了其后续管理。为了分析同一项目公司一线安全管理人员与近险事件报告人员在近险事件隐瞒报告问题中的博弈关系,本文构建了管理者-报告人员演化博弈模型,并利用VensimPLE构建系统仿真模型进行研究。本文将实际情况抽象为演化博弈模型,对模型中的每个参数进行逻辑分析并定量赋值。然后,利用软件模拟不同初始策略组合下管理者监督概率和记者隐瞒概率的变化,通过对模拟结果的分析,得出不同初始策略设置下的策略变化,为近险事件管理者制定监督策略和设置监督频率提供理论选择依据。
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A Simulation Model of Engineering Construction Near-miss Event Disclosure Strategy Based on Evolutionary Game Theory
In the field of construction engineering, the concealment reporting problem in the initial stage of near-miss event management seriously hinders its subsequent management. In order to analyze the game relationship between the front-line safety managers and the near-miss event reporters of the same project company in the near-miss event concealment reporting problem, this paper constructs a manager-reporter evolutionary game model and uses VensimPLE to build a system simulation model for the study. In this paper, the real situation is abstracted into an evolutionary game model, and each parameter in the model is logically analyzed and quantitatively assigned a value. Then, the software is used to simulate the changes of manager's supervision probability and reporter's concealment probability under different initial strategy combinations, and through the analysis of the simulation results, the strategy changes under different initial strategy settings are obtained, so as to provide theoretical selection basis for near-miss event managers to formulate supervision strategies and set the frequency of supervision.
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