基于Runge Kutta 4阶的西苏门答腊省COVID-19 SEIRV模型模拟

Maya Sari Syahrul, Nurweni Putri, Rizki Azmirwan
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摘要

数学模型可以描述疾病爆发的传播问题,并可以进一步预测未来的病例数量。由于自2019年12月以来我们一直面临COVID-19疫情,当局可以使用该数学公式来预防疾病的传播并为其做好准备。本文采用SEIRV方法对西苏门答腊省新冠肺炎疫情数据进行模拟。由于龙格-库塔四阶数值方法的精度高于其他数值方法,因此采用龙格-库塔四阶数值方法对模型进行模拟。该模拟还比较了西苏门答腊省可用的两种疫苗之间的病例。综上所述,模拟结果表明,与未接种疫苗相比,COVID-19患者数量急剧减少。此外,在模拟实验中也证明,与科兴相比,疗效较高的moderna和辉瑞可以大幅减少新冠肺炎病例数
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COVID-19 SEIRV Model Simulation In West Sumatera Province Using Runge Kutta 4th Order
A mathematical model can describe a problem of spreading of a disease outbreak and can further predict the number of cases for the future. As we have faced COVID-19 outbreak since Desember 2019, the mathematics formula can be used by the authorities to prevent and as well as prepare the spreading of the disease. This paper uses the SEIRV method to simulate the data of COVID-19 in West Sumatera Province. Runge-Kutta 4th Order numeric method was used to simulate the model due to its higher accuracy compared to other numeric methods. The simulation also compares the cases between tha vaccines that available in West Sumatera Province. In conclusion, the simulation has shown that the number of COVID-19 patients has sharply decreased compared to without having the vaccination. Furthermore, moderna and pfizer which are having high efficacy, has been proved in the simulation can sharply decrease COVID-19 cases number compared to sinovac
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