当代新社会背景下的混合战争或“黑天鹅”

D. Roman
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在新冠肺炎疫情等新的经济、金融、政治、军事和社会背景下,当前国际安全形势可能是各国发展和生存面临的重大挑战之一。除了巩固国防的概念之外,面对新冠肺炎疫情的浪潮,联盟和消除国家间障碍的必要性是一个难以描述的现实。在这种背景下,我们重新发现了“不确定性”、“概率”和“知识”等术语的含义,以及“黑天鹅”——一种极不可能发生的事件,以罕见、极端影响和惊喜为特征,尽管出乎意料,但本可以证明是可以预测的。混合战争——21世纪初国际事务的一种趋势,已经成为许多安全研究或关于“不久的将来”的史诗作品的有趣话题之一。军事组成部分在相互关联领域的社会网络中的作用变得重要,这需要重新评估军事专家的技能,在扩展的态势感知中,在关键的基础设施保护社会坐标上。”
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Hybrid Warfare or the “Black Swan” in the New Contemporary Societal Context
"The current international security situation determined by the new economic, financial, political, military and social context, in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic, is perhaps one of the major challenges that the states have to face in their development and existence. Beyond the concept of consolidated national defence, the need for an alliance and for lifting the barriers between states in the face of the waves of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus contamination is a reality which is difficult to characterise. In this context, we rediscover the meaning of terms such as “uncertainty”, “probability” and “knowledge” as well as the “Black Swan” – a highly improbable event, identified by rarity, extreme impact and surprise, which, despite the unexpected, could have been demonstrated predictable. Hybrid warfare – a trend in the international affairs at the beginning of the 21st century is already one of the intriguing topics of many studies on security or of epic writings about “an immediate future”. The role of the military component in the societal network of the interconnected domains becomes a major one, which requires a reassessment of the military specialist’s skills, in an extended situational awareness, on the critical infrastructure protection societal coordinates."
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