{"title":"区域极地变暖与向极地的水汽输送变率有关","authors":"R. Bintanja, R. Graversen, M. Kolbe","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/acee9e","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Polar warming, ice melt and strong precipitation events are strongly affected by episodic poleward advection of warm and moist air (Woods and Caballero 2016 J. Clim. 29 4473–85; Wille et al 2019 Nat. Geosci. 12 911–6), which, in turn, is linked to variability in poleward moisture transport (PMT) (Nash et al 2018 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 123 6804–21). However, processes governing regional impacts of PMT as well as long-term trends remain largely unknown. Here we use an ensemble of state-of-the-art global climate models in standardized scenario simulations (1850–2100) to show that both the Arctic and the Antarctic exhibit distinct geographical patterns of PMT-related warming. Specifically, years with high PMT experience considerable warming over subarctic Eurasia and West-Antarctica (Raphael et al 2016 Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97 111–21), whereas precipitation is distributed more evenly over the polar regions. The warming patterns indicate preferred routes of atmospheric rivers (Woods and Caballero 2016 J. Clim. 29 4473–85), which may regionally enhance atmospheric moisture content, cloud cover, and downward longwave radiative heating in years with comparatively high PMT (Scott et al 2019 J. Clim. 32 665–84). Trend-analyses reveal that the link between PMT-variability and regional precipitation patterns will weaken in both polar regions. Even though uncertainties associated with intermodel differences are considerable, the advection of warm and moist air associated with PMT-variability is likely to increasingly cause mild conditions in both polar regions, which in the Arctic will reinforce sea-ice melt. Similarly, the results suggest that warm years in West-Antarctica disproportionally contribute to ice sheet melt (Trusel et al 2015 Nat. Geosci. 8 927–32), enhancing the risk of ice-sheet instabilities causing accelerated and sudden sea-level rise.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Regional polar warming linked to poleward moisture transport variability\",\"authors\":\"R. Bintanja, R. Graversen, M. Kolbe\",\"doi\":\"10.1088/2752-5295/acee9e\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Polar warming, ice melt and strong precipitation events are strongly affected by episodic poleward advection of warm and moist air (Woods and Caballero 2016 J. Clim. 29 4473–85; Wille et al 2019 Nat. Geosci. 12 911–6), which, in turn, is linked to variability in poleward moisture transport (PMT) (Nash et al 2018 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 123 6804–21). However, processes governing regional impacts of PMT as well as long-term trends remain largely unknown. Here we use an ensemble of state-of-the-art global climate models in standardized scenario simulations (1850–2100) to show that both the Arctic and the Antarctic exhibit distinct geographical patterns of PMT-related warming. Specifically, years with high PMT experience considerable warming over subarctic Eurasia and West-Antarctica (Raphael et al 2016 Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97 111–21), whereas precipitation is distributed more evenly over the polar regions. The warming patterns indicate preferred routes of atmospheric rivers (Woods and Caballero 2016 J. Clim. 29 4473–85), which may regionally enhance atmospheric moisture content, cloud cover, and downward longwave radiative heating in years with comparatively high PMT (Scott et al 2019 J. Clim. 32 665–84). Trend-analyses reveal that the link between PMT-variability and regional precipitation patterns will weaken in both polar regions. Even though uncertainties associated with intermodel differences are considerable, the advection of warm and moist air associated with PMT-variability is likely to increasingly cause mild conditions in both polar regions, which in the Arctic will reinforce sea-ice melt. Similarly, the results suggest that warm years in West-Antarctica disproportionally contribute to ice sheet melt (Trusel et al 2015 Nat. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
极地变暖、冰融化和强降水事件受到暖湿空气向极地平流的强烈影响(Woods and Caballero, 2016 . J.气候,29 4473-85;Wille et al . 2019地球科学学报,12 911-6),这反过来又与极地水分输送(PMT)的变化有关(Nash et al . 2018 J. Geophys。Res. Atmos. 123 6804-21)。然而,控制PMT区域影响的过程以及长期趋势在很大程度上仍然未知。在这里,我们在标准化情景模拟(1850-2100)中使用了最先进的全球气候模式集合,以表明北极和南极都表现出与pmt相关的不同的变暖地理模式。具体来说,PMT高的年份在欧亚亚北极和南极洲西部经历了相当大的变暖(Raphael et al . 2016 Bull)。点。Meteorol。Soc. 97 111-21),而降水在极地地区分布更为均匀。变暖模式表明了大气河流的优先路径(Woods and Caballero 2016 J. Clim. 29 4473-85),这可能会在PMT相对较高的年份区域增强大气含水量、云量和向下的长波辐射加热(Scott et al . 2019 J. Clim. 32 665-84)。趋势分析表明,在两极地区,pmt变率与区域降水模式之间的联系将减弱。尽管与模式间差异相关的不确定性相当大,但与pmt变率相关的暖湿空气平流可能越来越多地在两极地区造成温和条件,这将在北极加强海冰融化。同样,结果表明,南极洲西部的温暖年份不成比例地促进了冰盖融化(Trusel et al . 2015 Nat. geosi . 8 927-32),增加了冰盖不稳定导致海平面加速和突然上升的风险。
Regional polar warming linked to poleward moisture transport variability
Polar warming, ice melt and strong precipitation events are strongly affected by episodic poleward advection of warm and moist air (Woods and Caballero 2016 J. Clim. 29 4473–85; Wille et al 2019 Nat. Geosci. 12 911–6), which, in turn, is linked to variability in poleward moisture transport (PMT) (Nash et al 2018 J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 123 6804–21). However, processes governing regional impacts of PMT as well as long-term trends remain largely unknown. Here we use an ensemble of state-of-the-art global climate models in standardized scenario simulations (1850–2100) to show that both the Arctic and the Antarctic exhibit distinct geographical patterns of PMT-related warming. Specifically, years with high PMT experience considerable warming over subarctic Eurasia and West-Antarctica (Raphael et al 2016 Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97 111–21), whereas precipitation is distributed more evenly over the polar regions. The warming patterns indicate preferred routes of atmospheric rivers (Woods and Caballero 2016 J. Clim. 29 4473–85), which may regionally enhance atmospheric moisture content, cloud cover, and downward longwave radiative heating in years with comparatively high PMT (Scott et al 2019 J. Clim. 32 665–84). Trend-analyses reveal that the link between PMT-variability and regional precipitation patterns will weaken in both polar regions. Even though uncertainties associated with intermodel differences are considerable, the advection of warm and moist air associated with PMT-variability is likely to increasingly cause mild conditions in both polar regions, which in the Arctic will reinforce sea-ice melt. Similarly, the results suggest that warm years in West-Antarctica disproportionally contribute to ice sheet melt (Trusel et al 2015 Nat. Geosci. 8 927–32), enhancing the risk of ice-sheet instabilities causing accelerated and sudden sea-level rise.