国际大萧条的核算:两次世界大战期间的效率、扭曲和要素利用

A. Klein, Keisuke Otsu
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摘要

摘要本文运用经济周期会计方法对生产效率时变和要素市场扭曲的动态随机一般均衡模型进行了分析。我们用内生因素利用率来衡量劳动力和资本市场扭曲的规模,以及它们在两次世界大战期间对产出波动的相对重要性。我们的主要发现是,劳动力市场扭曲占美国和西欧产出下降的三分之二,内生因素利用放大了劳动力市场扭曲的负面影响,政府支出在20世纪30年代初退出金本位的欧洲国家从大萧条中复苏的过程中发挥了重要作用。
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Accounting for the International Great Depression: Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period
Abstract In this paper, we analyze the International Great Depression (IGD) in the U.S. and Western Europe by applying the business cycle accounting method to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with time-varying production efficiency and factor market distortions. We measure the size of labor and capital market distortions with endogenous factor utilization and their relative importance in accounting for output fluctuation during the interwar period. Our main findings are that labor market distortions accounted for two-thirds of the output drops in both the U.S. and Western Europe, endogenous factor utilization amplified the negative effects of labor market distortions, and government spending played an important role in the recovery from the Great Depression in European countries who left the Gold Standard in the early 1930s.
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