蒸汽发生器剩余使用寿命预测的数据驱动方法

Hoang-Phuong Nguyen, W. Fauriat, E. Zio, Jie Liu
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引用次数: 4

摘要

核电站蒸汽发生器的可靠性一直是一个具有挑战性的问题。文献中提出了各种诊断模型。然而,目前还没有关于开发一种预测蒸汽发生器未来健康状态的稳健预测模型的报道。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于arima的预测方法来跟踪蒸汽发生器的退化演变,并进一步预测其故障前的剩余使用寿命(RUL)。通过对来自不同蒸汽发生器的真实退化数据集的案例研究,验证了所提出模型的性能。
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A Data-Driven Approach for Predicting the Remaining Useful Life of Steam Generators
The reliability of steam generators in nuclear power plants has always been a challenging issue. Various diagnostic models have been proposed in the literature. However, no work has been reported on the development of a robust prediction model for forecasting the future health state of steam generators. In this paper, we propose an ARIMA-based prognostic approach for tracking the degradation evolution in a steam generator and further predicting its Remaining Useful Life (RUL) before breakdown. A case study concerning real degradation datasets from different steam generators is extensively investigated to validate the performance of the proposed model.
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