东加勒比货币联盟能承受老化吗?

Hunter Monroe
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引用次数: 1

摘要

与国际经验相比,东加勒比货币联盟目前正在进行的人口转型是迅速的,移民正在发挥特别大的作用。本文描述并量化了可能放大养老金改革挑战的几个因素。第一,对一些欧洲经委会国家来说,继续以历史速度移徙将大大提前养恤金计划资产耗尽的预计日期。其次,鉴于对高杠杆公共部门的大量敞口,以及在较小程度上对私人部门的投资记录,存在资产表现不佳的重大风险。第三,远离公共部门的投资组合多元化可能会因为年龄相关的中央政府加大医疗支出的压力而变得复杂。
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Can the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union Afford to Grow Old?
The demographic transition in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) now underway is rapid compared with international experience, and emigration is playing a particularly large role. This paper describes and quantifies several factors which could magnify the challenge of pension reform. First, for some ECCU countries, continued emigration at historical rates would considerably advance the projected date at which pension scheme assets are depleted. Second, there is a significant risk that assets will underperform, given the large exposures to the highly-leveraged public sector and to a lesser extent the record with private sector investments. Third, portfolio diversification away from the public sector could be complicated by age-related pressure for greater central government health spending.
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