美联储对资产价格泡沫有反应吗?

Marc-André Luik, Dennis Wesselbaum
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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要本文研究了美联储在大衰退前是否对资产价格泡沫做出了反应,以及这是否影响了宏观经济变量。我们估计了一个具有金融加速器和不同泰勒规则规范的资产价格泡沫过程的DSGE模型。我们发现对托宾Q和气泡冲击有反馈的泰勒规则是最适合的。我们的研究结果表明,在全球金融危机(GFC)之前,美联储采取了清理而不是学习的方法。然后,我们进行了反事实分析,并表明与没有对金融变量进行反馈的标准泰勒规则相比,该政策在全球金融危机之前创造了较低的利率。
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Did the FED React to Asset Price Bubbles?
Abstract This paper investigates whether the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) reacted to asset price bubbles before the Great Recession and whether this affected macroeconomic variables. We estimate a DSGE model featuring a financial accelerator and a process for asset price bubbles with different Taylor-rule specifications. We find that a Taylor-rule with a feedback to Tobin’s Q and bubble shocks fits best. Our findings suggest that the FED followed a cleaning rather than a leaning approach prior to the global financial crisis (GFC). Then, we perform a counterfactual analysis and show that this policy created a lower interest rate prior to the GFC compared to a standard Taylor-rule without feedback to financial variables.
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