关于基础设施支出、不确定性和增长的说明

Cruz A. Echevarría
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本文将Barro (Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98 (1990), No. 5 part II, pp. S103-S125)模型扩展到具有总不确定性的两期OLG经济。我们证明了在市场经济中,政府规模最大化平均增长和个人福利是一致的,并且不受引入不确定性的影响。然而,最大平均增长率确实取决于总体不确定性、个体的风险厌恶程度以及替代的跨期弹性如何与之比较。在随机经济中,个人福利较低。如果不考虑不确定性,就高估了政府规模变化的影响。
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A Note on Infrastructure Expenditure, Uncertainty and Growth
This note extends the Barro (Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98 (1990), No. 5 part II, pp. S103–S125) model to a two‐period, OLG economy with aggregate uncertainty. We show that the government sizes maximizing average growth and individual welfare in a market economy coincide and are not affected by the introduction of uncertainty. The maximum average growth rate, however, does depend on the aggregate uncertainty, the individuals' risk aversion and how the intertemporal elasticity of substitution compares with one. Individual welfare is lower in the stochastic economy. Failing to include uncertainty overestimates the effect of changes in the government size.
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