23510个工作岗位是多少?

Bruce J. Chapman
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引用次数: 5

摘要

在澳大利亚的政策辩论中,被认为受到拟议政策不利影响的群体提供对变化的不良后果的估计是司空见惯的。上述一个非常公开的例子是澳大利亚矿产委员会(MCA)根据2009年概念经济学(2009)所做的工作声称,当时计划的排放交易计划(ETS)将导致澳大利亚采矿业的工作岗位减少23,510个。我们的研究报告使用了三种不同的数据系列和方法,并进行了分析,旨在提高对2009年计划中的碳排放交易体系所导致的采矿业“失业”的理解,并将其纳入总体经济背景。关于采矿部门就业影响的规模和意义的要点不应存在争议;气候变化政策辩论中所谓的“失业”方面对整体政策论述毫无意义。我们的主要动机远远超出了ETS对采矿工作的潜在影响,这只是作为一个例子来说明政策辩论中就业数据的使用和滥用。
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How Many Jobs is 23,510, Really?
It is commonplace in Australian policy debate for groups presumed to be adversely affected by proposed policies to provide estimates of the undesirable consequences of change. A highly public example of the above is the claim by the Minerals Council of Australia (MCA), based on work done in 2009 by Concept Economics (2009), that the then-planned Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) would result in 23,510 fewer jobs in Australian mining than would otherwise be the case. Our research reports findings using three different data series and methods, and presents analyses aimed at improving the understanding of, and putting into an aggregate economy context, the projected mining sector “job losses” as a result of the 2009 planned ETS. The essential points concerning the size and meaning of mining sector employment effects should not be in dispute; the alleged “jobs loss” aspect of the climate change policy debate is not in any sense important to the overall policy discourse. Our major motivation lies well beyond the potential mining jobs implications from the ETS, which is used only as an example to illustrate the use and misuse of employment data in policy debate.
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