重力码头结构破坏的经济、社会和环境综合风险分析

Y. Xie, Z.Q. Hou, P. Li, J.H. Chen, H. Feng
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引用次数: 1

摘要

重力式码头结构破坏的综合风险评估研究在工程应用中具有重要意义。本文采用鱼骨图法识别重力码头失效所带来的主要经济、社会和环境风险,量化重力码头结构的主要失效后果如生命损失、经济损失、社会和环境影响,并采用层次分析法确定权重。采用线性加权和法构建了后果综合评价系数,并基于ALARP原理建立了重力式码头结构失效风险等级评价标准。结合基于Rosenblueth方法的重力码头串联系统整体失效概率分析,本文建立的重力码头结构失效经济、社会和环境风险综合评价体系,可实现对重力码头结构失效经济、社会和环境风险的综合评价。沉箱码头结构的研究表明,其破坏引起的综合风险水平可以忽略不计,可以接受。
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Comprehensive risk analysis of economy, society and environment for the structural failure of gravity wharf
The study on comprehensive risk assessment of gravity-wharf structural failure is of great significance in engineering application. In this paper, the main economic, social and environmental risks caused by the failure of gravity wharf are identified by using the fishbone diagram method, and the main failure consequences of gravity-wharf structure such as life loss, economic loss, social and environmental impact are quantified, and AHP method is used to determine the weight. The linear weighted sum method is used to construct the comprehensive assessment coefficient of consequences and the assessment standard of failure risk level of gravity-wharf structure is established based on ALARP principle. Combined with the overall failure probability analysis of gravity-wharf serial system based on Rosenblueth method, the comprehensive assessment system of the economic, social and environmental risks of gravity-wharf structural failure which is established in this paper, can realize the comprehensive assessment of the economic, social and environmental risks of gravity-wharf structural failure. The study of caisson wharf structure shows that the comprehensive risk level caused by its failure is negligible risk, which can be acceptable.
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