哥伦比亚制造业国际化的劳动力需求效应(1974-2015

Sonia Alexandra Agudelo Ayala
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摘要

哥伦比亚在九十年代初经历了一次重大的结构变化。这种结构变化与1992年前后进行的重大贸易和劳动力市场改革有关,1992年被认为是转折年。本文的重点是评估国际贸易敞口的结构性变化是否显著改变了制造业就业对工资变化的反应。采用Hamermesh(1993)的框架来解释总就业效应,它由替代效应和规模效应构成。这种总效应是经验量化的,它的两个组成部分是分开的。我们发现工资变动的就业弹性从1974-1991年的-1.05上升到1992-2015年的-1.56。从成分上看,替代效应从-0.68上升到-1.19,规模效应稳定在-0.38。这些发现表明,贸易自由化对工人福利有负面影响。劳动力需求的敏感性越大,工人的税负越大,劳动力市场结果的不稳定性也越大(Rodrik, 1997)。因此,九十年代工资税的增加可能导致工作的破坏和工人的税收负担的扩大,而资本-劳动替代过程可能由于就业敏感性的提高而加速。
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Labour Demand Effects of Internationalization in the Colombian Manufacturing Industry, 1974-2015
Colombia experienced a major structural change in the early nineties. This structural change is related to major trade and labour market reforms undertaken around 1992, which is considered the inflection year. This paper focuses on evaluating whether the structural change in international trade exposure significantly altered the employment response to wage changes in the manufacturing industry. Hamermesh’s (1993) framework is used to explain the total employment effect, which is made of the substitution and scale effects. This total effect is empirically quantified, and its two components disentangled. We find that the employment elasticity of a wage change rose from -1.05 in 1974-1991 to -1.56 in 1992-2015. By components, the substitution effect rose from -0.68 to -1.19, and the scale effect remained stable at -0.38. These findings suggest that trade liberalization has had negative consequences on workers’ welfare. A larger sensitivity of labour demand has been associated with a larger workers’ tax burden and a greater instability in labour market outcomes (Rodrik, 1997). Therefore, the increases in payroll taxation experienced during the nineties may have led to job destruction and an amplified workers’ tax burden, while capital-labour substitution processes may have accelerated on account of the larger employment sensitivity.
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