A risk-effect model for waterway transport of dangerous goods

Inland waterway transport of dangerous goods in the Netherlands is becoming increasingly important. When accidentally exposed, these goods can endanger the environment and inhabitants. The Dutch government is concerned with the safety of transport and has developed a risk management policy. To develop tools for risk management, a large research project "Safety of Inland Water Transport" was initiated. The aim of this project is to make an inventory of the most dangerous locations along the inland waterways and to develop a risk-effect model (REM), that can support decisions on safety improvement of waterways and harbours. The research project is divided into 3 phases. In January 1994 the first phase of the project was finished. In the final phase REM will enable precise calculation of safety risks, economical and environmental risks of waterway transport and will make it possible to get insight into the qualitative and quantitative effect of risk-reducing measures. In the paper an outline of the risk policy in the Netherlands is given. The paper then concentrates on the first phase version of REM. Some major future developments of REM are highlighted. The application of REM is then demonstrated with a case-study.