CORDEX和CMIPs多模式综合对安哥拉气候变化的预估

Izidine Pinto, E. C. de Perez, C. Jaime, P. Wolski, Lisa van Aardenne, E. Jjemba, Jasmijn Suidman, A. Serrat-Capdevila, A. Tall
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摘要

安哥拉一直被认为是最易受气候变化影响的地区之一。气候变化加上现有的贫困、冲突遗留问题和其他风险因素,目前阻碍了发展,而且随着气候变化影响的增加,预计会变得更糟。本文分析了2020-2040年和2040-2060年两个时间段气候变化对温度和降雨变量的影响。该分析基于CMIP5和CMIP6耦合模式比较项目的多模式集成和协调区域降尺度实验(CORDEX)。我们对观测数据集的研究结果表明,安哥拉的年平均气温自1951年以来平均上升了1.4°C,升温速率约为每十年0.2[0.14-0.25]°C。然而,降雨模式似乎主要受自然变率的影响。极端温度预估显示,最冷的夜晚预估变暖,最热的白天预估变热。降雨预估表明,随着未来强降水事件的增加,雨季的性质将发生变化。我们调查了安哥拉所有河流流域的干旱可能如何变化,我们发现未来干旱的不确定性增加了。气候变化和变异性的增加表明,需要采取适应措施,重点是减少关键部门的风险,特别是安哥拉城市的适应措施,因为向城市地区的流动性可能会增加。
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Climate change projections from a multi-model ensemble of CORDEX and CMIPs over Angola
Angola has been characterized as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Climate change compounded by existing poverty, a legacy of conflict and other risk factors, currently impede development and are expected to become worse as climate change impacts increase. In this study we analyze the signal of climate change on temperature and rainfall variables for two time periods, 2020–2040 and 2040–2060. The analysis is based on multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6) and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). Our findings from the observed dataset indicate that the mean annual temperature over Angola has risen by an average of 1.4 °C since 1951, with a warming rate of approximately 0.2 [0.14–0.25] °C per decade. However, the rainfall pattern appears to be primarily influenced by natural variability. Projections of extreme temperature show an increase with the coldest nights projected to become warmer and the hottest days hotter. Rainfall projections suggest a change in the nature of the rainy season with increases in heavy precipitation events in the future. We investigated how droughts might change in all river basins of Angola, and we found an increased uncertainty about drought in the future. The changes in climate and increased variability demonstrate the need for adaptation measures that focuses on reducing risks in key sectors with a particular focus on adaptation of cities in Angola given a potential increase in mobility towards urban areas.
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