Coronet Warrior: a message on ambiguity resolution

Aspects of the Coronet Warrior military exercise are used as the best examples of a comparison of expected line-item demands with actual ones in a wartime environment. The results of that exercise as they pertained to expected versus actual line item demands are used to compare the straight failure rate-based prioritization method of fault resolution to an algorithmic methodology based on historic data. An example is presented in which the workings of a representative historical method of fault resolution are compared to the more typical prioritization replacement method. The results indicate that the straight failure rate prioritization method is inferior to the historically based method in all cases except one. The exception is when the difference in the failure rates of the lowest replaceable units (LRUs) in the ambiguity group is small and the actual hardware corresponds directly to the expected failure rate based on equipment predictions. The Coronet Warrior experience indicates that this is unlikely to occur.<>