经济因素及其在全球国防战略和实力转移中的作用

V. Dumitrache
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引用次数: 0

摘要

“当国防决策者倾向于展望未来并设定短期、中期和长期目标时,他们面临着不确定性,并试图围绕与不同领域相关的多种情况进行工作。其中一个领域就是经济。随着全球经济实力的转移,经济也发生了变化。如果说全球经济发生了变化,那么国防力量也发生了变化。本文的目的是分析哪些经济因素会影响长期防御计划,以及决策者在决定不同情景时应该尝试考虑什么。在不急于下结论的情况下,我们可以假设,我们生活在一个高度动荡的世界,在这个世界上,主要的全球行动者正在发生变化。随着技术的发展,随着Covid-19大流行的影响,随着地缘政治的变化,如阿富汗局势,所有这些因素都可以在其经济影响的框架下进行监测。这些影响值得我们研究,并得出结论,我们未来生活的世界将如何形成,以及决策者在战略性地考虑发展自己国家的国防力量时应该关注什么。”
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The Economic Factor and Its Role in the Global Shift in Defence Strategy and Power
"When defence decision-makers tend to look to the future and set objectives for short, medium and long term, they face uncertainties and try to work around multiple scenarios that differ in relation to various fields. One such field is that of economy. And economy has changed as global economic power has shifted. If global economy has shifted so has defence power. The purpose of this paper is to analyse what economic factors influence long-term defence planning and what decision-makers should try to consider when deciding upon different scenarios. Without rushing to conclusions, we can assume that we live in a highly volatile world, where there is a shift in terms of main global actors. With the evolution of technology, with the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, with geopolitical shifts, like the situation in Afghanistan, all of these factors can be monitored under the umbrella of the economic impact that they have. The effects are there for us to study and to conclude on how the world that we will live in tomorrow shapes up and what decision-makers should focus on when it comes to thinking strategically about developing own countries’ defence power."
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