Reliability assessment of a stand-alone hybrid system using Monte Carlo simulation

Research on adequacy assessments of systems with integrated renewable generation sources has been carried out for decades, with increasing attention recently on stand-alone systems. In this paper, a reliability assessment of a stand-alone system that runs on wind turbine generators (WTGs), photovoltaic (PV) modules, batteries for storage, and backup micro gas turbines (MGTs) with different configurations is carried out using the Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS) method. Some atmospheric data on wind speed, solar irradiation, and ambient air temperature are needed to obtain the power outputs of the corresponding sources. Historical data were fitted into a Weibull distribution, and the extracted scale and shape parameters were used to re-simulate the important factors of renewable generation power output models. The two-state reliability model was employed to obtain the adequacy model of the MGTs. The two-state reliability model was combined with the output power models to build the generation model of WTGs, PVs and batteries. The generation model was then tested on the IEEE Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) as a load model.