关于欧洲国家关键利率的货币政策决策及其对通货膨胀的影响

S. Arzhevitin
{"title":"关于欧洲国家关键利率的货币政策决策及其对通货膨胀的影响","authors":"S. Arzhevitin","doi":"10.33763/finukr2023.02.007","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Introduction. For many years central banks around the world kept low rates. In 2021-2022 European countries experienced rising inflation in response to which the European Central Bank, as well as the central banks of countries with their own currencies, raised rates to the highest level in decades. At the same time, the effect of changes in accounting (key) rates turned out to be much weaker than expected. Problem Statement. The research is based on the popular hypothesis that the central bank will raise the key (accounting) rate as a tool to curb inflation. Purpose. To determine the correlation between inflation and the accounting (key) rate of the monetary policy body and approaches to the formation of the composition of bodies that make decisions on the accounting rate. Methods. Economic and statistical methods are used to assess the correlation and volatility of inflation rates and key rates of central banks, comparison, descriptive method, analysis, generalization and induction. Results. A comparative analysis of inflation dynamics in 2022–2023 in European countries and the key rate of central banks was carried out. Countries that are direct participants in the military conflict - Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus - should be considered separately, which is why they are excluded from the analysis. Particular attention is paid to the rationale and procedure for decision-making by monetary policy bodies on revising the key rate. Conclusions. In the euro area, under the conditions of a single policy regarding the key rate, a significant range of inflation rates among countries is allowed in the observation period of 2022-2023 in a wide range. The effect of reducing inflation comes in about 6 months after the key rate increase, however, the impact of non-monetary factors (fluctuations in world prices for oil, gas and grain) may be considered decisive in such a reduction. Accordingly, the discount rate increase has a greater effect not in terms of curbing inflation, but in the context of slowing economic growth. In the countries of the euro zone, inflation has increased and is returning to a moderate level, but the range of fluctuations of its inflation rates is very high. This contradicts the postulates of European market integration. Also, changes in inflation rates are very similar to the dynamics of global energy and food prices. In general, non-monetary factors of inflation remained the main ones, and the effectiveness of the key rate as a tool for reducing inflation in theory seems overestimated. In addition, a comparison of inflation rates and the level of the key rate in a sample of countries produces different ratios: in most countries, inflation exceeds the key rate many times over. Decisions about its level attract attention of market participants, and they are mostly expected (increase, preservation, decrease), but sometimes unexpected situations occur regarding the scale and direction of changes. The decision-making procedure and information disclosure are characterized by a high level of transparency and attention to the consequences and impact on the national economy. In the leading countries of the world, the decision on the level of the discount rate is always made by a collegial body, the composition of which is formed according to different approaches, despite the status of the central bank as independent from political influence.","PeriodicalId":209191,"journal":{"name":"Fìnansi Ukraïni","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Monetary policy decision-making regarding the key rate in European countries and their impact on inflation\",\"authors\":\"S. Arzhevitin\",\"doi\":\"10.33763/finukr2023.02.007\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Introduction. For many years central banks around the world kept low rates. In 2021-2022 European countries experienced rising inflation in response to which the European Central Bank, as well as the central banks of countries with their own currencies, raised rates to the highest level in decades. At the same time, the effect of changes in accounting (key) rates turned out to be much weaker than expected. Problem Statement. The research is based on the popular hypothesis that the central bank will raise the key (accounting) rate as a tool to curb inflation. Purpose. To determine the correlation between inflation and the accounting (key) rate of the monetary policy body and approaches to the formation of the composition of bodies that make decisions on the accounting rate. Methods. Economic and statistical methods are used to assess the correlation and volatility of inflation rates and key rates of central banks, comparison, descriptive method, analysis, generalization and induction. Results. A comparative analysis of inflation dynamics in 2022–2023 in European countries and the key rate of central banks was carried out. Countries that are direct participants in the military conflict - Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus - should be considered separately, which is why they are excluded from the analysis. Particular attention is paid to the rationale and procedure for decision-making by monetary policy bodies on revising the key rate. Conclusions. In the euro area, under the conditions of a single policy regarding the key rate, a significant range of inflation rates among countries is allowed in the observation period of 2022-2023 in a wide range. The effect of reducing inflation comes in about 6 months after the key rate increase, however, the impact of non-monetary factors (fluctuations in world prices for oil, gas and grain) may be considered decisive in such a reduction. Accordingly, the discount rate increase has a greater effect not in terms of curbing inflation, but in the context of slowing economic growth. In the countries of the euro zone, inflation has increased and is returning to a moderate level, but the range of fluctuations of its inflation rates is very high. This contradicts the postulates of European market integration. Also, changes in inflation rates are very similar to the dynamics of global energy and food prices. In general, non-monetary factors of inflation remained the main ones, and the effectiveness of the key rate as a tool for reducing inflation in theory seems overestimated. In addition, a comparison of inflation rates and the level of the key rate in a sample of countries produces different ratios: in most countries, inflation exceeds the key rate many times over. Decisions about its level attract attention of market participants, and they are mostly expected (increase, preservation, decrease), but sometimes unexpected situations occur regarding the scale and direction of changes. The decision-making procedure and information disclosure are characterized by a high level of transparency and attention to the consequences and impact on the national economy. In the leading countries of the world, the decision on the level of the discount rate is always made by a collegial body, the composition of which is formed according to different approaches, despite the status of the central bank as independent from political influence.\",\"PeriodicalId\":209191,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Fìnansi Ukraïni\",\"volume\":\"14 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-05-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Fìnansi Ukraïni\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.33763/finukr2023.02.007\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Fìnansi Ukraïni","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.33763/finukr2023.02.007","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

介绍。多年来,世界各地的央行都保持着低利率。在2021-2022年,欧洲国家经历了不断上升的通货膨胀,为此欧洲中央银行以及拥有本国货币的国家的中央银行将利率提高到了几十年来的最高水平。与此同时,会计(关键)利率变化的影响比预期的要弱得多。问题陈述。这项研究基于一种流行的假设,即央行将提高关键(会计)利率作为抑制通胀的工具。目的。确定通货膨胀与货币政策机构的会计(关键)比率之间的相关性,以及形成决定会计比率的机构组成的方法。方法。运用经济学和统计学方法评估通货膨胀率和中央银行关键利率的相关性和波动性、比较、描述方法、分析、概括和归纳。结果。对欧洲各国2022-2023年的通货膨胀动态和央行关键利率进行了比较分析。直接参与军事冲突的国家——乌克兰、俄罗斯和白俄罗斯——应该单独考虑,这就是为什么它们被排除在分析之外。特别注意货币政策机构就修改关键利率作出决策的理由和程序。结论。在欧元区,在关键利率政策单一的条件下,在2022-2023年的观察期,各国之间的通货膨胀率可以在一个较大的范围内波动。减少通货膨胀的效果在关键利率增加后大约6个月出现,然而,非货币因素(世界石油、天然气和粮食价格的波动)的影响可能被认为是这种减少的决定性因素。因此,提高贴现率的效果不是在抑制通货膨胀方面,而是在经济增长放缓的背景下。在欧元区国家,通货膨胀有所增加,并正在恢复到温和水平,但其通货膨胀率的波动幅度非常大。这与欧洲市场一体化的假设相矛盾。此外,通货膨胀率的变化与全球能源和食品价格的动态非常相似。总的来说,通货膨胀的非货币因素仍然是主要因素,从理论上讲,关键利率作为降低通货膨胀的工具的有效性似乎被高估了。此外,将一些国家的通货膨胀率和关键利率水平进行比较会产生不同的比率:在大多数国家,通货膨胀率超过关键利率许多倍。有关其水平的决定吸引了市场参与者的注意,并且这些决定大多是预期的(增加,保持,减少),但有时会出现有关变化的规模和方向的意外情况。决策程序和信息披露的特点是高度透明,并注意后果和对国民经济的影响。在世界主要国家,尽管中央银行的地位是独立于政治影响的,但关于贴现率水平的决定总是由一个合议制机构作出,其组成是根据不同的方法组成的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Monetary policy decision-making regarding the key rate in European countries and their impact on inflation
Introduction. For many years central banks around the world kept low rates. In 2021-2022 European countries experienced rising inflation in response to which the European Central Bank, as well as the central banks of countries with their own currencies, raised rates to the highest level in decades. At the same time, the effect of changes in accounting (key) rates turned out to be much weaker than expected. Problem Statement. The research is based on the popular hypothesis that the central bank will raise the key (accounting) rate as a tool to curb inflation. Purpose. To determine the correlation between inflation and the accounting (key) rate of the monetary policy body and approaches to the formation of the composition of bodies that make decisions on the accounting rate. Methods. Economic and statistical methods are used to assess the correlation and volatility of inflation rates and key rates of central banks, comparison, descriptive method, analysis, generalization and induction. Results. A comparative analysis of inflation dynamics in 2022–2023 in European countries and the key rate of central banks was carried out. Countries that are direct participants in the military conflict - Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus - should be considered separately, which is why they are excluded from the analysis. Particular attention is paid to the rationale and procedure for decision-making by monetary policy bodies on revising the key rate. Conclusions. In the euro area, under the conditions of a single policy regarding the key rate, a significant range of inflation rates among countries is allowed in the observation period of 2022-2023 in a wide range. The effect of reducing inflation comes in about 6 months after the key rate increase, however, the impact of non-monetary factors (fluctuations in world prices for oil, gas and grain) may be considered decisive in such a reduction. Accordingly, the discount rate increase has a greater effect not in terms of curbing inflation, but in the context of slowing economic growth. In the countries of the euro zone, inflation has increased and is returning to a moderate level, but the range of fluctuations of its inflation rates is very high. This contradicts the postulates of European market integration. Also, changes in inflation rates are very similar to the dynamics of global energy and food prices. In general, non-monetary factors of inflation remained the main ones, and the effectiveness of the key rate as a tool for reducing inflation in theory seems overestimated. In addition, a comparison of inflation rates and the level of the key rate in a sample of countries produces different ratios: in most countries, inflation exceeds the key rate many times over. Decisions about its level attract attention of market participants, and they are mostly expected (increase, preservation, decrease), but sometimes unexpected situations occur regarding the scale and direction of changes. The decision-making procedure and information disclosure are characterized by a high level of transparency and attention to the consequences and impact on the national economy. In the leading countries of the world, the decision on the level of the discount rate is always made by a collegial body, the composition of which is formed according to different approaches, despite the status of the central bank as independent from political influence.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊最新文献
Financial support for the recovery of Ukraine’s economy Market conditions and the role of the state in post-war economic recovery of Ukraine Metodological and software support for the implementation of electronic document circulation at the level of local budgets using the “ISC Local budget” software Highlighting the problems of terrorism and its financing in the process of training specialists in financial monitoring Public expenditures in crisis periods: empirical testing of developed countries and Ukraine
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1