两阶段传染病的最优治疗策略

Fushui Wang, Cuicui Jiang
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摘要

本文提出并分析了一种具有两个治疗阶段的疾病传播模型。结果表明,基本繁殖数是该病流行的临界阈值。如果基本繁殖数小于1,则无病平衡是全局渐近稳定的。否则,地方性平衡是全局渐近稳定的。因此,在基本繁殖数的基础上,提出了一种新的表征疾病严重程度的标记,即动态最终感染大小,它与传统的最终感染大小不同,因为所提出的模型包含了自然出生和死亡。最后,从基本繁殖数和动态最终感染规模的角度,获得有限医疗资源的优化策略,并基于这些发现给出现实世界的疾病管理场景。
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Optimal Treatment Strategy for Infectious Diseases with Two Treatment Stages
In this paper, a disease transmission model with two treatment stages is proposed and analyzed. The results indicate that the basic reproduction number is a critical threshold for the prevalence of the disease. If the basic reproduction number is less than one, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Otherwise, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Therefore, besides the basic reproduction number, a new marker for characterizing the seriousness of the disease, named as dynamical final infective size, is proposed, which differs from traditional final size because the proposed model includes the natural birth and death. Finally, optimization strategies for limited medical resources are obtained from the perspectives of basic reproduction number and dynamical final infective size, and the real-world disease management scenarios are given based on these finding.
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Adaptive Stochastic Synchronization of Uncertain Delayed Neural Networks A Comparison of Four Methods of Estimating the Scale Parameter for the Exponential Distribution Optimal Treatment Strategy for Infectious Diseases with Two Treatment Stages Conservative Vector Fields and the Intersect Rule Dynamic Analysis of a Predator-Prey Model with Holling-II Functional Response
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