Loss of organic cattle to the conventional value chains in Ireland: what are the economic and environmental impacts?

Purpose This paper aims to quantify the loss (or leakage) of organic cattle to conventional value chains in Ireland and assess its economic and environmental impacts. Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts a Bio-economy Input-Output (BIO) model, a quantitative economic model representing the interdependencies between different sectors of the economy, to assess the economic and environmental impacts of organic leakage in the Irish beef sector. Findings The study reveals that 17% of organic cattle aged under 1 year old leave the organic value chain, leaking to the conventional market as a result of imbalances in the development of the beef value chain. The economic cost of this organic leakage is 5.66 million euros. Leakage also has environmental effects because of changes in lifecycle methane and nitrogen emissions based on longer finishing times on organic farms and chemical fertilisers applied on conventional farms. The organic leakage results in a reduction of 82 tons of methane emission and 52 additional tons of nitrogen emission, which leads to 11,484 tons of net global warming potential (GWP) for a 100-year time horizon. Research limitations/implications Because of data availability, the research focussed on the baseline year 2015, which had national data available for disaggregation in Ireland. Therefore, researchers are encouraged to assess the economic and environmental impacts when more recent data are available and to analyse the change in the impacts over the years. Practical implications This study contributes to the discussion on organic conversion and provides valuable insights for stakeholders, especially policymakers, for the design of future organic schemes. Originality/value This is the first paper to assess organic leakage in the beef sector.