A multinomial modeling approach to assess supplier delivery performance for buyer-supplier alignment

Purpose Untimely delivery of goods and services, especially in a post-COVID landscape, is a critical harbinger of end-to-end fulfillment. Existing literature in supplier delivery modeling is focused on penalizing suppliers for late deliveries built into a contractual transaction, which eventually erodes trust. As such, a holistic modeling technique focused on long-term relationship building is missing. This study aims to design a supplier evaluation model that analytically equates supplier delivery performance to cost realization while replicating a core attribute of successful supply chains – alignment, leading to long-term supplier relationships. Design/methodology/approach The supplier evaluation model designed in this paper uses delivery deviation as a unit of measure as opposed to delivery duration to enhance consistency with enterprise resource planning protocols. A one-sided modified Taguchi-type quality loss function (QLF) models delivery lateness to construct a multinomial probability penalty cost function for untimely delivery. Prescriptive analytics using simulation and optimization of the proposed mathematical model supports buyer–supplier alignment. Findings The supplier evaluation model designed herein not only optimizes likelihood parameters for early and late deliveries for competing suppliers to enhance total landed cost comparisons for on-shore, near-shore and off-shore suppliers but also allows for the creation of an efficient frontier toward supply base optimization. Research limitations/implications At a time of systemic disruptions such as the COVID pandemic, global supply chains are at risk of business continuity. Supplier evaluation models need to focus on long-term relationship modeling as opposed to short-term contractual penalty-based modeling to enhance business continuity. The model offered in this paper is grounded in alignment – a cornerstone of successful supply chain integration, and offers an interesting departure from traditional modeling techniques in this genre. Practical implications The results from this analytical approach offer flexibility to a supply manager toward building redundancies in the supply chain using an efficient frontier within the supply landscape, which also helps to manage disruption and maintain end-to-end fulfillment. Originality/value The model offered in this paper is grounded in alignment – a cornerstone of successful supply chain integration, and offers an interesting departure from traditional modeling techniques in this genre. The authors offer a rational solution by creating an evaluation model that uses penalty cost modeling as an internal quality measure to rate suppliers and uses the outcome as a yardstick for negotiations instead of imposing penalties within contracts.