The Impact of Agricultural Price Inflation on Food Security: An Analysis of Countries Surrounding the Black Sea

This article examines the impact of inflation in agricultural prices on food security in the countries surrounding the Black Sea, including Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, the Russian Federation, Turkey, and Ukraine. Concerns about inflation in agricultural prices and food security have increased globally in recent years, especially due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has resulted in problems with agricultural production and logistical constraints, leading to increased food prices worldwide. This study analyzes the impact of agricultural price inflation on food security in the aforementioned countries. The analysis uses the "producer price index" of agricultural products, such as corn, beans, sugar beets, sunflower seeds, and wheat, published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to measure inflation, and "per capita food supply variability" to assess food security. The study examines the complex effects of agricultural product inflation on food security with the help of panel vector error correction model.