https://www.anmb.ro/buletinstiintific/buletine/2023_Issue1/02_EEA/169-177.pdf

A BARA
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引用次数: 0

摘要

光伏(PV)系统更多地出现在社区景观中,为消费者、公共建筑、市政当局和工业提供能源,平滑电价波动,减少对公共电网的依赖。它们是船舶的可靠能源,因为一些光伏技术是灵活的,可以安装在平面上甚至水面上,特别是当船舶停靠在海上或海边时。然而,光伏发电系统的运行受多种天气因素的影响,预测光伏发电系统的运行对实现可控负荷管理具有重要意义。此外,了解光伏系统是否产生多余的能量或需要额外的能量来覆盖负载是至关重要的。盈余可以提供给当地交易,也可以集中起来提供给中央市场。因此,在本文中,我们的目标是使用机器学习算法和递归神经网络(RNN),特别是多元长短期记忆(LSTM)模型来预测光伏系统的输出。描述了数据提取、特征工程和光伏功率预测,并利用位于康斯坦察县的4个光伏系统进行了仿真。使用RMSE、MAPE等预测性能指标评估结果。
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https://www.anmb.ro/buletinstiintific/buletine/2023_Issue1/02_EEA/169-177.pdf
The Photovoltaic (PV) systems are more present in the communities’ landscape providing energy to the consumers, public buildings, municipalities, and industry, smoothen the electricity prices fluctuations and reducing the dependency on the public grid. They are reliable energy sources for boats and ships as some of the PV technologies are flexible and can be located on plane surfaces or even on the water surface especially when the ships dock at sea or at the seashore. However, the operation of PV systems depends on several weather factors, and it is important to predict their operation to manage the controllable load. Furthermore, it is essential to know if the PV systems generate in surplus or additional energy is required to cover the load. The surplus can be offered for local trading or aggregated and offered for centralized markets. Therefore, in this paper, we aim to predict the output of the PV systems using machine learning algorithms and recurrent neural networks (RNN), especially a multivariate Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. Data extraction, feature engineering, and forecast of the PV power are depicted and the simulations are performed using 4 PV systems located in Constanta County. The results are assessed with prediction performance metrics such as RMSE, MAPE, etc.
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来源期刊
Scientific Bulletin of Naval Academy
Scientific Bulletin of Naval Academy Engineering-Ocean Engineering
自引率
0.00%
发文量
16
审稿时长
8 weeks
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