Analysis on the Energy Demand, CO2 and Pollutant Emissions, and Health Benefits from Urban Road Transport Sector: A Case Study of Shenyang

As society develops and urbanization accelerates, energy requirement and environmental emissions in the road transport field have expanded in Shenyang, China. It is necessary to look at its future energy needs and environmental emission trends. In this work, we have used the LEAP model to account for the energy requirement and environmental emissions from 2017 to 2030 under five scenarios for the road transport sector in Shenyang. Additionally, the intake fraction approach was applied to estimate the health effects and financial damages of NOX, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 emissions. The results indicate that the energy required in 2030will reach 8.18~10.65 Mtce in various scenarios. By 2030, under the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the emissions of CO2, CO, SO2, NOX, PM10, and PM2.5 will be 31089.51, 1794.4, 20.59, 205.88, 6.6 and 6.5 kt, respectively. Regarding health benefits, financial damage caused by NOX, SO2, PM10, PM2.5 emissions will reach RMB 8.594, 0.117, 1.013, and 1.566 billion in 2030 under the BAU scenario. Moreover, the development of energy-efficient and new energy automobiles is the best means of reducing energy demand and environmental emissions; thus, this approach should be paid special attention when developing future energy efficiency and emission abatement policies for road transport.