Automation in public sector jobs and services: a framework to analyze public digital transformation’s impact in a data-constrained environment

Purpose This study aims to estimate the value of the impact from digital transformation (DX) focusing on its automation effect, looking at the time and cost savings coming from the substitution effect with an adoption of digital technologies. For example, cloud and artificial intelligence technologies such as ChatGPT have the potential to change ways of working, substituting and replacing several of the tasks that are currently carried out by public administration (PA) employees and labor processes underpinning PA services. Design/methodology/approach The paper outlines a new framework to estimate the potential impact of DX on the public sector. The authors apply this framework to estimate the value of the impact of DX on the Italian PA, defining the latter by the collection of the value of its labor (i.e. PA workforce salaries) and by the collection of the value of its outputs (i.e. public services’ costs). Findings This study ultimately maps out the magnitude and trends of how likely the PA occupations and services could be substituted in a wider process of DX. To do this, the authors apply their framework to the Italian PA, and they triangulate secondary data collection, from official accounts of the Italian Ministry of Economics and the National Statistical Institute, with methodological antecedents from the UK Office for National Statistics and experts’ insights. Results provide a snapshot on the type and magnitude of PA jobs and services projected to be affected by automation over the next 10 years. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper provides for the first time an approach to estimate the value of the impact of DX on the public sector in a data-constrained environment – or in the lack of the required primary data. Once applied to the Italian PA, this approach provides a granular map of the automatability of each of the PA occupations and of the PA services. Finally, this paper mentions preliminary insights on potential challenges related to equity in public sector jobs and implications on recruitment processes.